South Africa’s inflation jumps to 5.4% in Sep

Beyond 4.5% midpoint of target range
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee prefers to anchor inflation expectations close to the 4.5% midpoint of its 3%-6% target range.
Phillepus Uusiku
Consumer price inflation (CPI) in South Africa increased to 5.4% in September from 4.8% in August, according to Stats SA. Similarly, data released by the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) revealed that annual inflation locally also stood at 5.4% in September, compared to 4.7% registered in August.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee prefers to anchor inflation expectations close to the 4.5% midpoint of its 3%-6% target range.

According to SARB’s six-monthly Monetary Policy Review released on Tuesday, headline CPI inflation has moderated since the April 2023 MPR, benefitting from strong goods disinflation, especially fuel and food disinflation, as well as tighter monetary policy. The further deceleration towards the 4.5% midpoint of the target range is, however, likely to be slow due to the fading base effects and somewhat sticky core inflation.

Upside pressures to core inflation are reflected in still elevated survey-based inflation expectations and a weak rand, with further risks emanating from load-shedding. The recent pickup in global oil prices and expected drier weather conditions add to inflation risks.

Headline inflation is projected to average 5.9% in 2023, down from 6.9% in 2022, and to only settle at the midpoint of the target range in the second quarter of 2025.

At the previous monetary policy announcement, SARB kept the repo rate unchanged at 8.25%. The repo rate in Namibia currently stands at 7.75%. The fifth monetary policy announcement for the year by the Bank of Namibia (BoN) is expected to take place next week Wednesday.

Finances

Fin24 reported that South Africa’s strained public finances are hindering economic growth and a return to lower inflation and interest rates, SARB cautioned.

"Reducing public debt to sustainable levels can deliver a triple dividend, namely lower cost of capital, reduced debt-service costs and lower inflation," the central bank added.

The comments come ahead of a 1 November update on the nation’s budget outlook by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana. He is expected to announce a large revenue shortfall and wider-than-expected budget deficit, aggravated by slower growth and weaker earnings from commodity exports.

Godongwana is being pressed by other Cabinet ministers in the ANC to climb down from proposed austerity measures designed to rein in debt and meet stabilisation targets in the wake of drastically lower-than-expected revenue.

South African government bond yields have climbed above 12% in recent months even as the country’s inflation rate has declined to 4.8% from above 7%, as investors weigh threats to the public [email protected]

Additional reporting by Fin24

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Republikein 2024-05-16

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Premier League: Manchester United 3 vs 2 Newcastle | Brighton 1 vs 2 Chelsea | Tottenham Hotspur 0 vs 2 Manchester City | Aston Villa 3 vs 3 Liverpool LaLiga: Celta Vigo 2 vs 1 Athletic Club | Getafe 0 vs 3 Atletico Madrid | Sevilla 0 vs 1 Cadiz | Rayo Vallecano 2 vs 1 Granada | Girona 0 vs 1 Villarreal | Real Madrid 5 vs 0 Deportivo Alaves | Osasuna 1 vs 1 Mallorca | Barcelona 2 vs 0 Real Sociedad SerieA: Fiorentina 2 vs 1 Monza | Lecce 0 vs 2 Udinese Katima Mulilo: 11° | 31° Rundu: 11° | 30° Eenhana: 11° | 31° Oshakati: 13° | 30° Ruacana: 13° | 30° Tsumeb: 14° | 28° Otjiwarongo: 12° | 27° Omaruru: 14° | 28° Windhoek: 11° | 26° Gobabis: 13° | 26° Henties Bay: 19° | 35° Wind speed: 42km/h, Wind direction: E, Low tide: 04:48, High tide: 10:54, Low Tide: 16:42, High tide: 23:24 Swakopmund: 20° | 26° Wind speed: 26km/h, Wind direction: S, Low tide: 04:46, High tide: 10:52, Low Tide: 16:40, High tide: 23:22 Walvis Bay: 23° | 34° Wind speed: 34km/h, Wind direction: SE, Low tide: 04:46, High tide: 10:51, Low Tide: 16:40, High tide: 23:21 Rehoboth: 12° | 26° Mariental: 15° | 28° Keetmanshoop: 18° | 29° Aranos: 15° | 28° Lüderitz: 19° | 35° Ariamsvlei: 19° | 31° Oranjemund: 14° | 26° Luanda: 25° | 26° Gaborone: 15° | 29° Lubumbashi: 11° | 27° Mbabane: 14° | 28° Maseru: 10° | 24° Antananarivo: 12° | 22° Lilongwe: 14° | 28° Maputo: 17° | 30° Windhoek: 11° | 26° Cape Town: 16° | 20° Durban: 18° | 25° Johannesburg: 15° | 25° Dar es Salaam: 23° | 32° Lusaka: 15° | 27° Harare: 12° | 25° Currency: GBP to NAD 22.99 | EUR to NAD 19.76 | CNY to NAD 2.52 | USD to NAD 18.2 | DZD to NAD 0.14 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.3 | EGP to NAD 0.38 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.72 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.54 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.22 | USD to DZD 133.93 | USD to AOA 834.06 | USD to BWP 13.53 | USD to EGP 46.8 | USD to KES 130.48 | USD to NGN 1520 | USD to ZAR 18.2 | USD to ZMW 25.1 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 78632.56 Down -0.07% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1710.9 Down -2.52% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 13421.4 Down -0.59% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 25316.08 Down -0.09% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI 9151.06 Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 381.51/OZ DOWN -0.0044 | Copper US$ 4.86/lb DOWN -0.0079 | Zinc US$ 2 973.00/T DOWN -0.35% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 83.45/BBP UP +0.22% | Platinum US$ 1 062.90/OZ DOWN -0.0065 Sport results: Premier League: Manchester United 3 vs 2 Newcastle | Brighton 1 vs 2 Chelsea | Tottenham Hotspur 0 vs 2 Manchester City | Aston Villa 3 vs 3 Liverpool LaLiga: Celta Vigo 2 vs 1 Athletic Club | Getafe 0 vs 3 Atletico Madrid | Sevilla 0 vs 1 Cadiz | Rayo Vallecano 2 vs 1 Granada | Girona 0 vs 1 Villarreal | Real Madrid 5 vs 0 Deportivo Alaves | Osasuna 1 vs 1 Mallorca | Barcelona 2 vs 0 Real Sociedad SerieA: Fiorentina 2 vs 1 Monza | Lecce 0 vs 2 Udinese Weather: Katima Mulilo: 11° | 31° Rundu: 11° | 30° Eenhana: 11° | 31° Oshakati: 13° | 30° Ruacana: 13° | 30° Tsumeb: 14° | 28° Otjiwarongo: 12° | 27° Omaruru: 14° | 28° Windhoek: 11° | 26° Gobabis: 13° | 26° Henties Bay: 19° | 35° Wind speed: 42km/h, Wind direction: E, Low tide: 04:48, High tide: 10:54, Low Tide: 16:42, High tide: 23:24 Swakopmund: 20° | 26° Wind speed: 26km/h, Wind direction: S, Low tide: 04:46, High tide: 10:52, Low Tide: 16:40, High tide: 23:22 Walvis Bay: 23° | 34° Wind speed: 34km/h, Wind direction: SE, Low tide: 04:46, High tide: 10:51, Low Tide: 16:40, High tide: 23:21 Rehoboth: 12° | 26° Mariental: 15° | 28° Keetmanshoop: 18° | 29° Aranos: 15° | 28° Lüderitz: 19° | 35° Ariamsvlei: 19° | 31° Oranjemund: 14° | 26° Luanda: 25° | 26° Gaborone: 15° | 29° Lubumbashi: 11° | 27° Mbabane: 14° | 28° Maseru: 10° | 24° Antananarivo: 12° | 22° Lilongwe: 14° | 28° Maputo: 17° | 30° Windhoek: 11° | 26° Cape Town: 16° | 20° Durban: 18° | 25° Johannesburg: 15° | 25° Dar es Salaam: 23° | 32° Lusaka: 15° | 27° Harare: 12° | 25° Economic Indicators: Currency: GBP to NAD 22.99 | EUR to NAD 19.76 | CNY to NAD 2.52 | USD to NAD 18.2 | DZD to NAD 0.14 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.3 | EGP to NAD 0.38 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.72 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.54 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.22 | USD to DZD 133.93 | USD to AOA 834.06 | USD to BWP 13.53 | USD to EGP 46.8 | USD to KES 130.48 | USD to NGN 1520 | USD to ZAR 18.2 | USD to ZMW 25.1 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 78632.56 Down -0.07% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1710.9 Down -2.52% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 13421.4 Down -0.59% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 25316.08 Down -0.09% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI 9151.06 Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 381.51/OZ DOWN -0.0044 | Copper US$ 4.86/lb DOWN -0.0079 | Zinc US$ 2 973.00/T DOWN -0.35% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 83.45/BBP UP +0.22% | Platinum US$ 1 062.90/OZ DOWN -0.0065