Global giants ditching SA's massive gas find amid frustration with govt, insiders say

SA&#039;s oil and gas industry is waiting with bated breath to hear if TotalEnergies will indeed exit the gas discoveries off the coast of Mossel Bay – a move which would follow hot on the heels of Canadian giant CNR International, which washed its hands of the project a few days ago. As a multinational oil and gas major, TotalEnergies is the operator of block 11B/12B, holding a 45% stake. It is responsible for carrying out all prospective activities. A US$400 million investment in exploration has yielded two major discoveries there — a one billion barrels equivalent gas find at the Brulpadda well in 2019, followed by another major discovery at the nearby Luiperd well in 2020.The other partners in the block are Toronto-listed Africa Energy Corp – which holds 10% through Main Street 1549; QatarEnergy, which has a 25% stake; and Canadian Natural Resources (CNR) International, which holds a 20% interest but has officially notified the partners of its withdrawal. JSE-listed HCI has an indirect stake in Africa Energy Corp via its 49.9% holding in a UK company called Impact Oil & Gas.In terms of the joint operating agreement, TotalEnergies must also now advise whether it will withdraw within 30 days. The same goes for all other partners. Africa Energy Corp said it has been advised that, in accordance with the agreement, "TotalEnergies is currently reviewing its options with regards to its 45% interest in Block 11B/12B".No commentOn Wednesday, Reuters reported TotalEnergies had indicated to regulators its intention to withdraw. Pushed for clarity on its position, TotalEnergies told News24 it would not comment. QatarEnergy did not respond to questions about its intentions. CNR declined to comment about its reasons for withdrawing.Africa Energy Corp, meanwhile, has affirmed its commitment to block 11B/12B."Natural gas will play a critical role in South Africa&#039;s energy transition, and the use of indigenous gas from the Block 11B/12B discoveries are currently the most material domestic supply option in South Africa," Africa Energy Corp said in a notice that was circulated to stakeholders this week.Lack of supportThe withdrawing parties cannot sell their interests. Rather, their stakes are assigned free of charge to each of the non-withdrawing partners in proportion to their interests. But given the significant cost of development, it is reasonable to expect that Main Street will require additional parties to develop the discoveries, Africa Energy Corp said.CNR&#039;s withdrawal is subject to all relevant regulatory approvals by South African authorities, Africa Energy Corp noted.However, the Petroleum Agency SA (PASA) – the regulator of exploration and production activities in the country – told News24 on Wednesday that it has yet to receive any official notification of withdrawal from any of the parties. Insiders with intimate knowledge of the developments said TotalEnergies has grown deeply unhappy over the lack of support from the South African government for the Brulpadda and Luiperd discoveries. While much has already been sunk into the project, sources say another US$3 to US$4 billion would have to be invested to develop the discovery.But offtake is key.Any such project requires a long-term offtake agreement for the minimum critical volume to justify the investment in developing the resource. Other countries tend to use electricity generation as an anchor. But the subsequent offtake from manufacturers is where the real economic benefit lies, given the employment and other opportunities such industries create. Sources say PetroSA&#039;s flirtation with Russia has also worried block 11B/12B partners. The state-owned entity last year selected Russia&#039;s Gazprombank Africa as its preferred investment partner to restart the Mossel Bay plant, stoking speculation about whether the feedstock would be sourced from Russia too.One source with intimate knowledge of the developments said South Africa&#039;s gas-to-power programme is a key gripe of TotalEnergies. Mounting frustrationsIt could have been an enabler for the gas find, but instead it was structured in a way that does not support indigenous gas production. The programme limits each project to 1 000 MW and talks to peaking power rather than base load. It further indicates that after five years, utilisation rates may be decreased. "Are you expecting TotalEnergies to outlay US$3 billion to US$4 billion for you to utilise the gas power less than 25% of the time?" the source asked.Adding to the frustrations, it certainly does not help that the production licence for 11B/12B is still in the works, almost two years since the application was lodged.Other industry sources, however, say the biggest problem relates to the technical aspects of the deepwater find, which in turn bolsters the development costs. The Brulpadda and Luiperd wells are located in one of the fastest ocean currents in the world."That project was always going to be a mess," said one oil and gas investor, who wished to remain anonymous."Technically, it&#039;s almost impossible to develop, and it is super expensive, because of the currents... if it was the only potential field in SA, then maybe everyone could join together, hold hands and make it work, but the West Coast of South Africa (where the Orange Basin extends) has so much more potential and is less technically challenging, so that is worth the focus of Total."ComplexThose partners who stay with Africa Oil Corp in block 11B/12B will have their work cut out for them. The block is located in a complex deepwater environment and does need someone of the calibre of TotalEnergies to operate in that terrain – a big player with deep pockets and technical skills.Meanwhile, TotalEnergies has its hands full with other opportunities, said Brendon Hubbard, portfolio manager at ClucasGray. Notable is the Venus oil discovery in neighbouring Namibia, where many other majors are also focusing their exploration investments. For TotalEnergies, the sunk funds are not unheard of. "That&#039;s how much it costs for a couple of holes that you&#039;ve drilled that turned up dry. And that happens every year," Hubbard said. But for South Africa, the lost opportunity would be great. "The irony is you have this gas field where you can&#039;t secure offtakers where the infrastructure is (being PetroSA&#039;s plant as well as Eskom&#039;s Gourikwa Open Cycle Gas Turbine)," said Hubbard."But then you&#039;ve got Sasol sitting with a plant that&#039;s running out of gas. The problem is you would need to build 1 100 kilometres of pipeline," he noted. Sasol, which imports natural gas from its Pande and Temane fields in Mozambique, has repeatedly warned that it will stop supplying local companies with gas starting in June 2026.

Global giants ditching SA's massive gas find amid frustration with govt, insiders say

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