Food security a huge challenge for sub-Saharan Africa
The greatest challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa in the near and medium term will be reducing hunger and improving food security in persistently low-income environments amid increasingly volatile weather conditions resulting from climate change.
This is according to the Agricultural Outlook 2023–2032 by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO).
"In an increasingly volatile and fragmented global market, the region’s greatest opportunity to supply affordable food to its growing population and improve food security rests in closing the productivity gap, improving market access and reducing the costs of transportation and regional trade."
The report said food security for a growing population in sub-Saharan Africa remains a huge challenge.
Rural challenges
Comprising 19% of the world’s agricultural land, the region is home to 1.1 billion people, and it is predicted that by 2032, the population will stand at 1.45 billion.
"While urbanisation is occurring, it is one of the only two regions where the absolute size of the rural population is increasing and the only region where more than half of the total population is still expected to reside in rural areas by 2032."
According to the report, sub-Saharan Africa produced only 5% of the global value of agricultural and fish production from 2020 to 2022.
"The region’s share in global consumption is significantly higher, underpinned by its large population."
Consumption and production trends
The report noted that dietary consumption is still highly staple-dependent, and from 2020 to 2022, it accounted for 42% of global root and tuber consumption and 12% of cereals, compared to only 7% of sugar consumption and 6% of global vegetable consumption.
It said that protein intake is comparatively low, reflecting weaker purchasing power, with only 6% of global fish consumption, 5% of dairy product consumption and 4% of meat consumption attributed to the region.
The report said that by 2032, it is expected to contribute 42% of global production of roots and tubers, 22% of pulses, 6.5% of cereals, 2% of oilseeds, and 6% of cotton.
It said that growth of 27% in food crop production over the coming decade will be underpinned by a combination of intensification, productivity gains and changes to the crop mix.
Average cereal yields are projected to grow by 1.9% per year over the outlook period, marginally faster than the past decade.
"Continued yield gains for most major crops stem from investments in locally adapted, improved crop varieties and better management practices. While yield growth for most crops exceeds the rates projected at a global level, this occurs from a base that is often less than half the global average."
Livestock growth
The report adds that the net value of livestock production is expected to expand by 27% over the coming decade, marginally faster than crops.
"Much of this growth is led by the dairy sector, with the region expected to add 10 million tonnes of milk and almost 3 million tonnes of meat by 2032."
Bovine production systems in the region are typically extensive, and growth in the coming decade will be fuelled more by herd expansion than productivity gains.
From 2020 to 2022, the region accounted for only 7% of global bovine meat output and almost 17% of the global bovine herd.
The report said the region’s share in the global bovine herd has increased steadily over the past decade and is projected to expand to almost 19% by 2032, yet its share in global beef production will remain just below 8%.
Self-sufficiency
To supply its rapidly expanding population, the region is expected to progressively rely on imports to supplement regional production.
"With few exceptions, most basic food commodities in the region are produced for domestic consumption rather than exports, but domestic production of many products is insufficient to meet demand."
According to the report, the region’s trade deficit in major food items is anticipated to deepen over the coming decade as the need for imports grows faster than the supply of exports.
"While largely self-sufficient in maize production, the region is highly reliant on imports of major cereals such as rice and wheat."
This is according to the Agricultural Outlook 2023–2032 by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO).
"In an increasingly volatile and fragmented global market, the region’s greatest opportunity to supply affordable food to its growing population and improve food security rests in closing the productivity gap, improving market access and reducing the costs of transportation and regional trade."
The report said food security for a growing population in sub-Saharan Africa remains a huge challenge.
Rural challenges
Comprising 19% of the world’s agricultural land, the region is home to 1.1 billion people, and it is predicted that by 2032, the population will stand at 1.45 billion.
"While urbanisation is occurring, it is one of the only two regions where the absolute size of the rural population is increasing and the only region where more than half of the total population is still expected to reside in rural areas by 2032."
According to the report, sub-Saharan Africa produced only 5% of the global value of agricultural and fish production from 2020 to 2022.
"The region’s share in global consumption is significantly higher, underpinned by its large population."
Consumption and production trends
The report noted that dietary consumption is still highly staple-dependent, and from 2020 to 2022, it accounted for 42% of global root and tuber consumption and 12% of cereals, compared to only 7% of sugar consumption and 6% of global vegetable consumption.
It said that protein intake is comparatively low, reflecting weaker purchasing power, with only 6% of global fish consumption, 5% of dairy product consumption and 4% of meat consumption attributed to the region.
The report said that by 2032, it is expected to contribute 42% of global production of roots and tubers, 22% of pulses, 6.5% of cereals, 2% of oilseeds, and 6% of cotton.
It said that growth of 27% in food crop production over the coming decade will be underpinned by a combination of intensification, productivity gains and changes to the crop mix.
Average cereal yields are projected to grow by 1.9% per year over the outlook period, marginally faster than the past decade.
"Continued yield gains for most major crops stem from investments in locally adapted, improved crop varieties and better management practices. While yield growth for most crops exceeds the rates projected at a global level, this occurs from a base that is often less than half the global average."
Livestock growth
The report adds that the net value of livestock production is expected to expand by 27% over the coming decade, marginally faster than crops.
"Much of this growth is led by the dairy sector, with the region expected to add 10 million tonnes of milk and almost 3 million tonnes of meat by 2032."
Bovine production systems in the region are typically extensive, and growth in the coming decade will be fuelled more by herd expansion than productivity gains.
From 2020 to 2022, the region accounted for only 7% of global bovine meat output and almost 17% of the global bovine herd.
The report said the region’s share in the global bovine herd has increased steadily over the past decade and is projected to expand to almost 19% by 2032, yet its share in global beef production will remain just below 8%.
Self-sufficiency
To supply its rapidly expanding population, the region is expected to progressively rely on imports to supplement regional production.
"With few exceptions, most basic food commodities in the region are produced for domestic consumption rather than exports, but domestic production of many products is insufficient to meet demand."
According to the report, the region’s trade deficit in major food items is anticipated to deepen over the coming decade as the need for imports grows faster than the supply of exports.
"While largely self-sufficient in maize production, the region is highly reliant on imports of major cereals such as rice and wheat."
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