Protect the economy

Jo-Maré Duddy – Namibia’s third Covid-19 wave has hit the country like a tsunami, but despite global research and local experts’ consensus that herd immunity is the only life jacket, society remains deeply divided over vaccination.Social media mirrors a community torn apart by those pleading with their fellow Namibians to vaccinate to not only safe lives, but to resuscitate the economy, while conspiracy theorists, sceptics and those with religious or moral objections ride the wave of anti-vaccination.A recent telephone survey by Afrobarometer showed nearly two-thirds of Namibians believe that prayer is more effective than a vaccine would be in preventing an infection by the coronavirus.Only 23% of respondents in the survey said they were “very likely” to get vaccinated, while 25% indicated they were “somewhat likely”. Nearly a third said they were “very unlikely” to get jabbed.Amid the raging debate, the World Bank has warned that the impact of Covid-19 in 2020 pushed poor Namibians, measured by the upper middle-income poverty line, to a record-high of 1.6 million – an increase of 200 000 people in a single year.The Afrobarometer survey showed at least four out of every ten Namibians in 2020 lost their permanent jobs, business or income due to Covid-19, while more than six out of every ten people had to go hungry at times. About 65% of respondents said their household income was significantly reduced.CRITICALWith annual economic growth of -8% in real terms, Namibia last year recorded its biggest contraction in history. Preliminary data by the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) indicates the domestic economy recorded an average annual growth of -1.7% since 2016.Business7 asked local economists, analysts and observers how important the vaccination of a sufficient number of Namibians is for the recovery of the economy.“Absolutely crucial,” responded both the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) and the Economic Policy Research Association (EPRA).“Imperative,” said IJG Securities research analyst, Dylan van Wyk. “Vital,” answered Robert McGregor, Cirrus Securities’ research chief. “Very important,” according to the director of the Economic Association of Namibia (EAN), Klaus Schade.Heiko Prior, head of securities at Simonis Storm (SS), replied: “An effective vaccine is the key driver to combat a pandemic.”Former finance minister Calle Schlettwein, currently the minister of agriculture, water and land reform, on his own Facebook page on Monday urged people to get vaccinated. “There is no room anymore to doubt efforts to control transmission, to prevent casualties. All of us must get vaccinated and all of us must adhere to all Covid protocols,” he said.DIRE CONSEQUENCESMore than 90% of respondents in Survey Warehouse’s Afrobarometer report said they were “very worried” or “somewhat worried” that the pandemic will negatively affect Namibia’s economy, their household economic situation and their children’s future.The World Bank, in its economic overview of Namibia in March 2021, said the pandemic “mostly affected already vulnerable people, which threatens to widen social gaps further and increase already extremely high inequality”.“In part due to the negative impact of Covid-19 on livelihoods, poverty rates are projected to increase in the near to medium term, with the upper middle-income poverty rate projected to stay around 64% until 2022,” the World Bank said.It added: “Namibia’s past steady economic growth has not been enough to deal with the country’s triple challenge of high poverty, inequality and unemployment. The weakening of growth in the last few years combined with the Covid-19 shock further put at risk social development progress.”‘SIMPLY NO RESERVES’Post-2020, Namibian households and businesses “simply do not have the reserves to withstand further lockdowns”, McGregor said. “Unemployment has increased, jobs are more difficult to come by for many than has been the case for years, and incomes (for households and businesses alike) have taken a significant hit. The average Namibian is materially poorer today than in 2015 (in real terms), and it will take many years of strong and sustained growth to recover from this,” he elaborated.According to McGregor the danger of not reaching a sufficient level of vaccinations quickly enough is the possibility of further waves of infections and the restrictions that come as a response thereto, which will curtail economic activity.In addition, “government also does not have the fiscal firepower to offer direct financial support to offset the effects of strict regulations, like stringent lockdowns”, he said.Van Wyk agrees that insufficient vaccination will cause repeated Covid-19 waves “with high mortality levels and continued lockdowns”. “In essence, we will have a repeat of 2020 until we reach the vaccination levels required to stop the spread. This will lead to low government revenues, higher health spending and increased lending to cover expenditures,” he said.‘BEST BET’Namibia cannot afford another lockdown: “It will further cripple our already strained economy,” said Prior.He continued: “We are lagging the developed economies, as their vaccine rollouts have given them scope to get back to business. Covid-19 prevalence drives lockdown measures which in turn hampers economic growth. Therefore, herd immunity should, in theory at least, reverse lockdown measures and boost economic growth.”Without a successful vaccination campaign, EPRA believes Namibians “will protract our suffering, both economically and health-wise”. “Our healthcare system will continue to be strained for longer. Our education system will also be left in chaos for longer,” the think-tank warned. Prior said limited or slow vaccine roll-out will shrink the workforce which impacts output negatively, decrease income and a drop in consumer confidence, lower household savings and reduced household spending.Everybody agreed that tourism will be the biggest casualty of a failed campaign.“International tourist arrivals were down 83% in the first quarter of 2021, and we have only very recently entered the third wave of infections. This means tourism will not return to normal levels anytime soon,” Van Wyk commented.According to McGregor, “available evidence indicates that having a sufficient proportion of the population vaccinated is our best bet to avoid a repeat of the economic damage”.‘NOT EVEN CLOSE’Business7’s commentators agreed that Namibia wasn’t on track to achieve its target of vaccinating roughly 60% of the population.“Not at all,” Van Wyk stressed. “Not even close,” EPRA said.According to Graham Hopwood, executive director of the IPPR, the uptake of vaccines is “way too slow and will lead to more hospitalisations and deaths as we are seeing now with the developing third wave”. He added: “On top of this, more jobs will be lost, businesses will close and government finances will come under even more severe strain.”Namibia is lagging the international community with the latest data confirming a global vaccination rate of 12.51%, Prior pointed out. Depending on which data is used, roughly 3.5% of Namibia’s population has received their first vaccine dose.Van Wyk put the figures into context: “Brazil and India, also two countries experiencing severe fallout from the pandemic, are at 25% and 14% respectively, while most advanced nations are above 50%.”“At the present rate of vaccination in Namibia we will only reach the target population of 1.5 million adults by the middle of 2023 at the earliest,” Hopwood said.WHO’S TO BLAME?McGregor believes the slow vaccination rate is “through no fault of government, but rather appears to be a sense of hesitancy amongst many in the population”, while Prior said government wasn’t “solely to be blamed” as Namibians have their suspicions about vaccines.Hopwood, however, described government's campaign to encourage vaccinations as “lacklustre so far”. “They really need to pick up the pace with a mass advertising campaign that could be supported by the private sector,” he said.Government can do much better in utilising social media for its vaccination campaign, according to EPRA. “In these times of anti-intellectualism, where Facebook and YouTube preachers seem to rule over scientific research, many, if not most, people prefer information channels which disseminate misinformation. To counter this with traditional media campaigns is becoming increasingly difficult,” EPRA said.INFODEMICMuch more needs to be done to challenge vaccine disinformation, Hopwood said.According to the Afrobarometer, 62% of Namibians get their information on social media on a daily basis, while 58% source it from the internet.Only one in every five Namibians trusts government’s Covid statistics “a lot”, the survey concluded. Less than one in ten trusts government to ensure that the vaccines are safe. A staggering 77% of respondents are very or somewhat worried that companies which make vaccines for Covid-19 will try to test them on ordinary Namibians even if they have not been proven to be safe.“It is absolutely crucial that the public trust the institutions tasked with assessing scientific research and that these institutions counter the mountain of misinformation and social media preachers out there,” EPRA said. “Our fear of vaccines, while they have saved countless lives for centuries, and our tendency to go down social media conspiracy theory ratholes, will cost us many more lives and continue to hamper our economic growth,” the think-tank said.Schade concurred: “More efforts are certainly necessary to counter the conspiracy theories circulating on social media that prevent people from getting vaccinated. All communication channels - radio, TV, print and social media - need to be used to get the message across on a regular basis that vaccination is necessary and safe and prevent most of the infections and consequently illness and potential death.”Hopwood didn’t mince his words: “I think we are getting to the point where we need to name and shame those in Namibia who are spreading vaccine misinformation via WhatsApp and other social media.”TO VACC OR NOT TO VACCAsked about the private sector’s support in the campaign, Van Wyk said many companies in the private sector have taken the stance that taking the vaccine is a difficult and complex personal decision.“I feel that this narrative is potentially harmful,” he said, adding: “Vaccinations are social responsibility and all evidence points to the fact that the medical benefits far outweigh the risks. I feel the private sector could do much more to encourage employees to get vaccinated and advertise the message.”Apart from a couple of financial institutions, he hasn’t seen the private sector playing a significant role in promoting vaccinations, according to Hopwood. “There is so much more business can do - especially the tourism operators - to make sure the majority of the population is vaccinated, including everyone working in the tourism industry.”Hopwood doesn’t support mandatory vaccinations, but said “effective health education should be able to persuade large numbers to get vaccinated”.The decision to be vaccinated should be up to individuals themselves, McGregor said, but “this must be an informed decision made on accurate information”.TEAM EFFORTSchade called for coordinated efforts between the private and public sectors, saying they should “work much closer together”, stressing the need for “strong leadership in all sectors of society”.The Afrobarometer concluded that the slow vaccine uptake is explained by Namibians’ doubts about vaccine safety. “Their preference for prayer over vaccination suggests a need to involve faith-based organisations in the vaccine rollout,” it stated.Hopwood said: “Every sector of Namibian society needs to get involved, including the churches, in educating and encouraging Namibians to get vaccinated.”“Geared and execution should go hand in hand,” Prior commented on government’s ability to mass-vaccinate. “The health system is currently under immense strain; we believe that it is not geared for mass vaccination. Those able to make strategic decisions (influential positions) should act swiftly to avoid delays in procurement and application. Namibia would need to focus on behavioural change,” he said.

Protect the economy

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