New vehicle sales crash in 2018
Analysts expect 2019 to be another tough year for the motor industry.
Jo-Maré Duddy – Not only were less new vehicles sold in Namibia last year than in 2017, by the 2018 annual sales figure was the lowest since December 2010.
The 11 875 new vehicles that were sold in Namibia in 2018 was about 1 300 less than the previous year, IJG Securities’ analysis of the data shows.
Neither IJG, nor Simonis Storm (SS) paint a rosier picture for 2019.
“We expect total vehicle sales to contract by 4.2% in 2019 mainly of the back of a continuous decline in borrowing through instalment credit,” SS says, adding that the second quarter may witness “some relief” as new models enter the local market.
The latest figures from the Bank of Namibia (BoN) shows annual growth in instalment credit for both business and individuals remained deep in the red in November. Business recorded a rate of -8.6%, while consumers’ up-take grew by -6.8%.
Moneywise, the sector owed local commercial banks about N$4.4 billion in total instalment debt by the end of November, about N$414 million less than November 2017. At some N$6.7 billion, consumers’ total instalment debt was down approximately N$491 million.
IJG says the outlook for new vehicle sales remain “bleak”. “The fact that the 12-month cumulative figure is hovering around 2011 levels is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in, characterised by depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as lower government spending,” IJG says.
The mid-year budget review tabled in October last year shows government intends spending N$10 million on vehicles in 2019/20, down from an estimated N$11.9 million in the current fiscal year. Revised vehicle spending in 2017/18 was about N$29.4 million, while actual spending the year before was nearly N$92 million. According to the mid-year budget review, government plans to set aside nearly N$12.9 million for vehicles in 2020/21.
Market share
IJG says Toyota continued to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2018, claiming 33.4% of the market. This was followed by Volkswagen with a 28.5% share, Hyundai with 5.8% and Kia with 5.0%.
According to IJG, passenger vehicle sales made up 42.7% of the total number of new vehicles sold during 2018, broadly in line with the trend over the last four years.
Toyota also remained the leader in the commercial vehicle space in 2018 with 56.1% market share, IJG says.
Nissan was in second place with an 18.8% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.2% and 5.1% respectively of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino lead the medium commercial vehicle category with 39.4% of sales, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 35.5% of the market share during the year, IJG says.
The 11 875 new vehicles that were sold in Namibia in 2018 was about 1 300 less than the previous year, IJG Securities’ analysis of the data shows.
Neither IJG, nor Simonis Storm (SS) paint a rosier picture for 2019.
“We expect total vehicle sales to contract by 4.2% in 2019 mainly of the back of a continuous decline in borrowing through instalment credit,” SS says, adding that the second quarter may witness “some relief” as new models enter the local market.
The latest figures from the Bank of Namibia (BoN) shows annual growth in instalment credit for both business and individuals remained deep in the red in November. Business recorded a rate of -8.6%, while consumers’ up-take grew by -6.8%.
Moneywise, the sector owed local commercial banks about N$4.4 billion in total instalment debt by the end of November, about N$414 million less than November 2017. At some N$6.7 billion, consumers’ total instalment debt was down approximately N$491 million.
IJG says the outlook for new vehicle sales remain “bleak”. “The fact that the 12-month cumulative figure is hovering around 2011 levels is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in, characterised by depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as lower government spending,” IJG says.
The mid-year budget review tabled in October last year shows government intends spending N$10 million on vehicles in 2019/20, down from an estimated N$11.9 million in the current fiscal year. Revised vehicle spending in 2017/18 was about N$29.4 million, while actual spending the year before was nearly N$92 million. According to the mid-year budget review, government plans to set aside nearly N$12.9 million for vehicles in 2020/21.
Market share
IJG says Toyota continued to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2018, claiming 33.4% of the market. This was followed by Volkswagen with a 28.5% share, Hyundai with 5.8% and Kia with 5.0%.
According to IJG, passenger vehicle sales made up 42.7% of the total number of new vehicles sold during 2018, broadly in line with the trend over the last four years.
Toyota also remained the leader in the commercial vehicle space in 2018 with 56.1% market share, IJG says.
Nissan was in second place with an 18.8% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.2% and 5.1% respectively of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino lead the medium commercial vehicle category with 39.4% of sales, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 35.5% of the market share during the year, IJG says.
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