Manufacturing running even higher fever
Namibia's economy is expected to grow by -7.3% this year, below the anticipated -3% for Sub-Saharan Africa and the -4.4% for the world.
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns on manufacturing will be worse than anticipated and the Bank of Namibia (BoN) now expects the sector to grow by -12.7% this year.
In August, the central bank forecast growth of -9.2%.
The BoN's updated economic outlook, released yesterday, also painted gloomier growth forecasts for wholesale and retail, transport and storage, as well as education, health and public administration and defence.
The BoN's forecasts of -64% for tourism and -5.7% for construction remained unchained from August.
Although still significant, smaller contractions for mining and agriculture than forecast in August helped to improve the BoN's latest overall economic growth expectation. The central bank now forecasts the economy to grow by -7.3% this year, slightly better than the -7.8% in August.
At -7.3% Namibia's forecast is below the anticipated -3% for Sub-Saharan Africa and the -4.4% for the world.
If correct, the BoN's forecast will bring Namibia's average growth since 2016 to -1.76%. The economy has been in a slump with zero growth recorded in 2016, -1% in 2017, followed by 1.1% in 2018 and -1.6% last year.
Sectors
The BoN now expects wholesale and retail to grow by -9.5% in 2020, down from -8.9% in August.
Growth in beverage production is expected to tumble from -17.6% forecast in August to -24.2%.
The current prediction for transport and storage is -16.3% against -11.5% previously.
Public administration and defence's forecast is down from -0.7% to -3.1%.
Education and health are still forecast to grow positively, but a weaker performance is expected. Education's forecast currently is 2.2% compared to 2.7%, while health's is 3.7% against 6.3%.
Agriculture, mining
In August, the BoN anticipated growth of -13.8% for livestock farming and 4.2% for crop farming and forestry. Now the expectation is -6.4% and 21.3% respectively.
Diamond mining was expected to contract by 24.6%. The current forecast is -14.7%. The growth forecast for uranium mining has improved from -22.9% to -5.2%. Overall, mining and quarrying is anticipated to grow by -10.5% this year. In August, the forecast was -18.6%.
The BoN expects Namibia's economy to grow by 2.6% in 2021 and by 3.2% the following year. In August, it forecast was 2.1% and 2.7% respectively.
Jo-Maré Duddy –
In August, the central bank forecast growth of -9.2%.
The BoN's updated economic outlook, released yesterday, also painted gloomier growth forecasts for wholesale and retail, transport and storage, as well as education, health and public administration and defence.
The BoN's forecasts of -64% for tourism and -5.7% for construction remained unchained from August.
Although still significant, smaller contractions for mining and agriculture than forecast in August helped to improve the BoN's latest overall economic growth expectation. The central bank now forecasts the economy to grow by -7.3% this year, slightly better than the -7.8% in August.
At -7.3% Namibia's forecast is below the anticipated -3% for Sub-Saharan Africa and the -4.4% for the world.
If correct, the BoN's forecast will bring Namibia's average growth since 2016 to -1.76%. The economy has been in a slump with zero growth recorded in 2016, -1% in 2017, followed by 1.1% in 2018 and -1.6% last year.
Sectors
The BoN now expects wholesale and retail to grow by -9.5% in 2020, down from -8.9% in August.
Growth in beverage production is expected to tumble from -17.6% forecast in August to -24.2%.
The current prediction for transport and storage is -16.3% against -11.5% previously.
Public administration and defence's forecast is down from -0.7% to -3.1%.
Education and health are still forecast to grow positively, but a weaker performance is expected. Education's forecast currently is 2.2% compared to 2.7%, while health's is 3.7% against 6.3%.
Agriculture, mining
In August, the BoN anticipated growth of -13.8% for livestock farming and 4.2% for crop farming and forestry. Now the expectation is -6.4% and 21.3% respectively.
Diamond mining was expected to contract by 24.6%. The current forecast is -14.7%. The growth forecast for uranium mining has improved from -22.9% to -5.2%. Overall, mining and quarrying is anticipated to grow by -10.5% this year. In August, the forecast was -18.6%.
The BoN expects Namibia's economy to grow by 2.6% in 2021 and by 3.2% the following year. In August, it forecast was 2.1% and 2.7% respectively.
Jo-Maré Duddy –
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