Fate of the future

Jo-Maré Duddy – The grandchildren of Namibia’s Generation Z will have to survive in a country where the overall maximum temperatures could rise by up to 5.4 degrees Celsius, rainfall rates drop by 19% and the duration of heat waves increase to 29 days per year.Unless the more than 120 heads of state, including President Hage Geingob, gathered in Glasgow, Scotland for the UN's COP26 conference, ensure the continued viability of the Paris Agreement. The agreement promises to limit global temperature rises to "well below" 2°C, and to work for a safer 1.5°C. COP26 is being billed as crucial for charting humanity's path away from catastrophic global warming.“The demise of Namibia’s oldest and largest trees, the baobabs, some of which have lived for 1 700 years, have begun dying in the last 15 years, because of climate change,” government comments on its choice of the front page visuals for its “Updated Nationally Determined Contribution 2021”. The blueprint highlights Namibia’s planned climate action to achieve the global targets set out in the Paris Agreement and is published as the country is party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).“The existential danger to Namibia remains climate change. We are one of the countries most vulnerable to its adverse impacts,” says the minister of environment, forestry and tourism, Pohamba Shifeta, in the foreword of the latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).The World Bank agrees. “Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on key economic sectors and livelihoods,” the Bank says in its Climate Risk Country Profile for Namibia, released this year.ALARMING STATSQuoting the analysis from the German Climate Service Centre (GERICS) of 32 Global Climate Models (GCMs), the World Bank says temperatures across Namibia are expected to increase by 1.7°C to 5.4°C by the 2080s.“Maximum temperatures are expected to increase by 2.0°C to as much a 5.4°C with minimum (night time) temperatures are expected to increase from 1.5°C to 4.9°C by the end of the century. The duration of heat waves is expected to increase by 6 to 29 days by the 2080s; the number of cold days will significantly reduce,” the Bank says.Namibia’s mean maximum annual temperature from 1991 to 2020 was 28°C.While changing rainfall trends in Namibia is highly variable, GERICS analysis indicates total precipitation rates are likely to reduce by as much as 19% by the 2080s, the institution says. “The largest decrease is projected for the typical dry season, April to October, with likely reductions from 5% to as much as 65%.”Namibia mean annual rainfall from 1991 to 2020 was 269.2 mm.The World Bank estimates that the effects of climate change and variability could result in annual decrease of 6.5% in gross domestic product (GDP), thereby hindering economic development.In Namibia’s latest NDC, the country commits to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 89% to 91% by 2030. The projected net cost of the NDC mitigation measures to be implemented in Namibia is expected to be approximately US$3.61 billion by 2030 and more than US$1.72 billion for adaptation targets, representing a total funding need of approximately US$5.33 billion – or more than N$82 billion at the current exchange rate. According to the NDC, the funding pool will constitute a mix of national and international funding.READINESSDue to a combination of political, geographic, and social factors, Namibia is recognised as vulnerable to climate change impacts in the ND-GAIN Index. The index, compiled by the University of Notre Dame, ranks countries using a score which calculates a country’s vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges as well as their readiness to improve resilience. It aims to help businesses and the public sector better identify vulnerability and readiness in order to better prioritise investment for more efficient responses to global challenges.In the 2020 ND-GAIN Index, Namibia is ranked 104 out of 181 countries. Norway, with a total score of 76.2, was ranked first in the world. Namibia scored 45.4.According to the World Bank, Namibia’s score has been on an overall downward score curve since 1996. Even at its peak, Namibia has never scored 47.5 on the ND-GAIN Index.DISASTERSClimate change trends in Namibia are expected to increase the risk and intensity of extreme events and natural hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, floods and wildfires, the World Bank says.Drought is the most devastating hazard for Namibia in terms of total people affected and total cost of damage, according to the Washington-based lender. “Over 2 million people are affected and previous droughts have cost the country an estimated US$175 million per year; in regards to economic output of impacted areas economic impacts are estimated at reaching US$3.6 billion per year,” the World Bank says.Documented flood events have affected over 1 million people and is estimated to have potential economic damage for the country up to approximately US$100 million per year.Fires damage between 3 and 7 million hectares of land annually, the World Bank adds.AGRICULTUREThe agricultural sector is critical to Namibia’s economy and the overall food security and contributes approximately 7%–10% of the country’s GDP. “Agriculture impacts directly on the livelihoods of 70% of the population which is largely dependent on rain-fed crop production, with nearly 48% of Namibia’s rural households dependent on subsistence agriculture.”The World Bank estimates that cereal crop yields can decline by up to 20% in the north-eastern region and by 50% in the north-central region under rain-fed conditions.The potential decline in livestock carrying capacity under climate change across the country is estimated to range from 10% in the north-eastern region, through 15%–30% in the northcentral region, to 35% in the central region. “These changes will intensify pressures on grazing lands and livestock management systems. As a result of declining carrying capacity, it is estimated that cattle numbers could fall to about 51% of present numbers by 2080,” the World Bank warns.WATERNamibia is the driest country in Southern Africa, with water scarcity being one of the major primary limiting factors to development in the country. The effects of climate change, rapid population growth, and rural exodus pose additional challenges and threaten people’s livelihoods as well as the balance of the ecosystems, the World Bank says.Of the water that Namibia receives as rainfall, it is estimated that only 2% ends up as surface run-off and just 1% becomes available to recharge groundwater. About 45% of the country’s water comes from groundwater sources, 33% from the border rivers, mainly in the North, and about 22% from impoundments on ephemeral rivers.The World Bank projects changes in rainfall over Angola and Zambia of up to between 10–20% by 2050, which will likely lead to reduction of 20–30% in runoff and drainage of perennial rivers in northern Namibia. Ephemeral rivers in the interior of the country may be similarly affected, the Bank says. Projections also indicate that by 2065, changes to rainfall patterns over the catchments of the Zambezi, Kavango, Cuvelai and Kunene rivers are likely to lead to a 25% reduction of runoff and drainage in these river systems, it adds.“As temperature rise increases begin to surpass 3°C, a marked increase in evaporation of 5%–15% is expected, thereby leaving even less water available for discharge and storage,” the World Bank says.The lender summarises: “Overall, it is estimated that the country will incur a reduction of groundwater recharge, thereby making the ground water situation in the country dire. “Namibia’s groundwater, usually provides a buffer against droughts in many regions, however, persistent future droughts will likely result in falling groundwater tables and reduced surface water flows. This can lead to wells drying up, extending distances for water collection, and increasing water source pollution. The poor will be affected the most.”ENERGY, HEALTHNamibia is at risk to disrupted and/or limited power supply due to climate change trends of reduced rainfall, reduced river flow and thus decreased hydropower generation, according to the World Bank.“As Namibia is dependent upon energy supply from Southern Africa, regional trends can be highly impactful. A projected reduction in rainfall may lead to reduced runoff and surface water availability. “Increase evaporation rates for water storage facilities will impact production costs and increase prices for consumers. Increasing temperatures are likely to increase demand for energy for cooling with increase peak loads during hotter periods, with an overall net increase in electricity usage,” the Bank says.Namibia is highly vulnerable to the adverse health implications from projected future climates for the country, including increased temperatures, more intense and frequent extreme weather events, and increased duration and severity of aridity and drought, the World Bank says. “These trends are likely to result in increased water and food insecurity, higher exposure to heat stress and ultraviolet radiation, and changes in infectious and vector borne disease transmission patterns. The leading causes of death in Namibia, including respiratory illnesses, have strong links to climatic factors.”The young and the elderly, especially in rural areas of north and central Namibia, which are the most populous but where populations may also have less access to advanced medical facilities are likely to be most affected, according to the World Bank.BIODIVERSITY, TOURISMThe Namibian landscape supports a remarkable biodiversity, especially its plant species. Nature landscapes, wildlife, and increasing interest in culture dominate the Namibian tourism product, the World Bank says.“Projections of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity indicate a reduction in vegetation cover over the central highlands by the 2050s, with further reductions towards the 2080s. Overall, projections show species loss of 40%–50% in 2050 and 50% and 60% by the 2080s.”In the desert areas, the impacts of climate change on plant species vary considerably, according to the World Bank. “Local plant extinctions of up to 80% (without migrations) are projected for parts of the north-eastern and northern Kalahari, while extinctions of only 20% are projected in the coastal dessert zones regions.”The World Bank points out that the coastline is very important for tourism and recreation activities, which contribute significantly to the Namibian economy. However, projected sea level rise and coastal erosion pose a threat to tourist activity along the coast.“Projected sea level rise under very conservative scenarios of 0.4 m–1.4 m can lead to erosion of these tourist landmark attractions. For example, Walvis Bay, which is located between 1-3 m above sea level, in a semi-sheltered bay surrounded by an erodible coastline is especially vulnerable and may cease to exist altogether. Even a sea level rise of only 0.3m, regarded as virtually certain, will flood significant areas, and a 1m rise will inundate most of the town during high tide,” the World Bank says.‘AGGRESSIVE PLANS’In Namibia’s NDC 2021, Shifeta says to meet emission reduction goals, the country has set aggressive plans to increase its share of renewable energy in the energy mix through various initiatives.“If we obtain sufficient foreign funding and aid, we will aim to reach net-zero beyond 2030,” he says.In addition to Namibia’s extreme weather challenges, the country is “now tackling a range of global challenges that also threaten our capacity to cope and our desire to achieve sustainable growth”, Shifeta says, referring to the Covid-19 pandemic.“Thus, without external assistance, the government's recovery strategies and stronger policies cannot be efficiently enforced,” he says. Shifeta continues: “Despite these challenges, and while our contribution to GHG emissions is just 0.003% of the global share, we are committed to climate leadership and intend to promote more successful and bold steps to solve the climate problem facing the world today.”

Fate of the future

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