Vehicle market eyes Venus boost

Namibia's motoring market could see annual vehicle sales rise above 20 000 if oil and gas major TotalEnergies takes a positive final investment decision (FID) on its Venus project, Simonis Storm has said.

The investment firm said a confirmed FID could trigger an estimated N$180 billion to N$220 billion capital expenditure programme over three to five years, creating significant demand for vehicles.

Offshore support logistics would require specialist heavy-duty vehicle fleets, while construction linked to port infrastructure in Walvis Bay could generate sustained demand for medium and light commercial vehicles, it said.

Simonis Storm added that the economic multiplier effect of an estimated 8 000 to 12 000 direct and indirect construction jobs could result in an additional 200 to 350 passenger vehicle registrations a month during peak construction.

"This is not in our base case. Its realisation would represent a step-change catalyst, pushing Namibia's market above 20,000 units per annum on a sustained basis," the firm said.

Positive FID expected

Simonis Storm estimated the probability of a positive Venus FID within the next six months at between 70% and 90%, describing it as the single largest unpriced upside factor in Namibia's automotive demand outlook.

"The policy and business implications are material and immediate. Dealer principals should accelerate forward-order placement for H2 stock, particularly Hilux, Jetour and Haval nameplates, where July volumes confirmed structurally rather than cyclically driven demand," Simonis Storm said.

The firm said regional representatives of original equipment manufacturers should plan for Namibian sales to remain sustainably above 1 200 units a month and adjust demonstration inventory accordingly.

"Financiers and fleet operators should model 15 500 to 16 500 units as the 2026 base case, with Venus FID as the upside scenario," it said.

For investors monitoring Namibian equities with exposure to consumer demand, Simonis Storm said the key consideration was that the 2026 vehicle cycle was not merely a recovery.

Instead, it described the market as undergoing a "genuine structural repricing" of its demand ceiling, supported by regional economic momentum, monetary easing, the expansion of lower-priced Chinese brands and a commodity export cycle with a multi-year outlook.

Venus' projected impact

The development of TotalEnergies' proposed Venus oil project could create an estimated 7,000 jobs during its production phase, according to an environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) prepared by SLR Consulting.

Of the projected jobs, about 600 are expected to be direct employment opportunities, with the remainder comprising indirect and induced jobs across the wider economy.

The ESIA was prepared for TotalEnergies and its joint venture partners, QatarEnergy, Impact Oil & Gas and the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (Namcor).

SLR Consulting said the employment projections were informed by an economic assessment conducted by auditing firm Deloitte. The assessment estimated that, during production, about 600 jobs would be direct, a further 600 indirect and approximately 5 800 induced.

"Primary drivers would be private household services, wholesale and retail trade, and transport industries," SLR Consulting said, noting that these sectors alone could account for more than 4 200 jobs.