SpaceX targets $1.8 trillion valuation

SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in an initial public offering expected to begin formal marketing next week, in what could become the largest stock market debut in history.

The company is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion in the listing. It generated almost $19 billion in revenue last year, driven largely by the rapid expansion of its Starlink satellite internet service, which now serves more than 10 million customers worldwide.

But analysts are questioning whether enough investor demand exists to absorb the offering, particularly given that rival technology firms OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to list publicly within a similar timeframe.

Nigel Green, chief executive of financial advisory firm deVere Group, said markets were approaching one of the most significant tests of appetite for technology assets in recent memory.

"SpaceX alone is seeking one of the largest valuations ever attached to a newly public company," he said. "Add the expected listings of OpenAI and Anthropic and investors could be asked to absorb trillions of dollars of fresh equity value within a relatively short period. Even highly enthusiastic markets have limits."

Green acknowledged SpaceX's commercial achievements, its transformation of satellite launch economics, its global communications network, and its position across sectors including defence technology and AI infrastructure, but cautioned against conflating business quality with investment value.

"A great company and a great stock are not always the same thing," he said. "At close to $1.8 trillion, investors are effectively pricing in years of success before much of that profitability has arrived."

He pointed to the historical record of large IPOs, many of which generated strong early excitement before delivering disappointing returns in their first year of trading.

Green also flagged the concentration of control at SpaceX as a risk factor for prospective shareholders. "Ownership and control are two very different things," he said. "Strategic decision-making remains highly concentrated" with chief executive Elon Musk.

Beyond the individual listing, Green said the wave of anticipated mega-IPOs could trigger significant reallocation across global equity markets, with capital potentially shifting away from the so-called Magnificent Seven, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Apple and Tesla, toward a new generation of space and AI-focused companies.

"Capital is finite," he said. "If several mega-IPOs arrive within months of each other, money will need to come from somewhere."

Green said the central question facing markets this summer was whether investor demand was as deep as widely assumed, or whether a surge in new supply would finally begin testing its limits.