Namibia’s beef export collapse: A strategic reset for the economy
The first half of 2025 has delivered one of the most acute shocks to Namibia’s economy in years. Beef exports, traditionally a cornerstone of our trade balance, collapsed by more than 50% year-on-year. Quarter 1 shipments fell 51.4% to 1.43 million kg, while Quarter 2 contracted a further 49.7% to 4.04 million kilograms. The paradox is striking: international demand for Namibian beef remains robust. The weakness lies entirely at home.
The drivers are structural and cyclical. Following severe drought in 2024, farmers liquidated herds. When heavy rains returned in early 2025, incentives flipped. Retention for breeding surged, marketed cattle fell 60%, live exports to South African feedlots collapsed 75%, and abattoirs saw throughput at historic lows. Veterinary restrictions linked to lumpy skin disease compounded the bottlenecks.
The economic costs are material. We estimate direct farm-gate revenue losses of N$600 to 800 million, a gross domestic product (GDP) drag of 0.5 to 1 percentage point, a 1% of GDP deterioration in the trade balance, and fiscal losses of around N$400 million. Retail shortages drove beef prices higher by more than 7%, while imports of poultry and pork rose sharply, a double hit to consumers and the current account.
What this episode has revealed is the fragility of the system. Namibia’s over-reliance on live weaner exports to South Africa leaves the entire value chain vulnerable. When retention occurs, or health restrictions bite, export abattoirs sit idle, risking the loss of hard-won EU and China certifications. Left unaddressed, this cycle of drought, liquidation, retention, collapse, and rebound will repeat.
Our outlook suggests 2025 marks the trough. With normal rains expected in 2025/26, we see exports recovering by 10 to 20% in 2026, with full normalisation by 2027. But a passive wait for rain is not strategy. Policy innovation is required now.
Namibia has an opportunity to reset. Incentives must be recalibrated to ensure minimum throughput at export abattoirs, veterinary logistics modernised through digital vaccine passports and pre-approved corridors, and new export markets cultivated in Asia and the Middle East during this low-volume window. Financial innovation, such as drought-indexed restocking loans can support liquidity and resilience. Most importantly, Namibia should link its beef to the tourism brand, elevating positioning as a premium global product.
In moments of stress, economies reveal their true structure. What we are seeing is not simply a cattle cycle, it is a call for strategic reset. The way Namibia responds will determine whether beef remains a volatile commodity cycle or evolves into a durable, high-value export platform.
Chart prepared by Simonis Storm.
The drivers are structural and cyclical. Following severe drought in 2024, farmers liquidated herds. When heavy rains returned in early 2025, incentives flipped. Retention for breeding surged, marketed cattle fell 60%, live exports to South African feedlots collapsed 75%, and abattoirs saw throughput at historic lows. Veterinary restrictions linked to lumpy skin disease compounded the bottlenecks.
The economic costs are material. We estimate direct farm-gate revenue losses of N$600 to 800 million, a gross domestic product (GDP) drag of 0.5 to 1 percentage point, a 1% of GDP deterioration in the trade balance, and fiscal losses of around N$400 million. Retail shortages drove beef prices higher by more than 7%, while imports of poultry and pork rose sharply, a double hit to consumers and the current account.
What this episode has revealed is the fragility of the system. Namibia’s over-reliance on live weaner exports to South Africa leaves the entire value chain vulnerable. When retention occurs, or health restrictions bite, export abattoirs sit idle, risking the loss of hard-won EU and China certifications. Left unaddressed, this cycle of drought, liquidation, retention, collapse, and rebound will repeat.
Our outlook suggests 2025 marks the trough. With normal rains expected in 2025/26, we see exports recovering by 10 to 20% in 2026, with full normalisation by 2027. But a passive wait for rain is not strategy. Policy innovation is required now.
Namibia has an opportunity to reset. Incentives must be recalibrated to ensure minimum throughput at export abattoirs, veterinary logistics modernised through digital vaccine passports and pre-approved corridors, and new export markets cultivated in Asia and the Middle East during this low-volume window. Financial innovation, such as drought-indexed restocking loans can support liquidity and resilience. Most importantly, Namibia should link its beef to the tourism brand, elevating positioning as a premium global product.
In moments of stress, economies reveal their true structure. What we are seeing is not simply a cattle cycle, it is a call for strategic reset. The way Namibia responds will determine whether beef remains a volatile commodity cycle or evolves into a durable, high-value export platform.
Chart prepared by Simonis Storm.
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