Mineral surge halves Namibia's external gap

Namibia's current account deficit contracted significantly during the second quarter of 2025, reaching N$5.4 billion compared with N$13.8 billion in the preceding quarter and N$6.8 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. When measured as a proportion of quarterly gross domestic product, the deficit fell to 8.4%, down from 21.4% in the first quarter and 11.6% in the second quarter of 2024. The Economic Association of Namibia (EAN) attributed the improvement to both enhanced trade performance and reduced outflows on the services account.Trade balance strengthens substantiallyThe merchandise trade balance emerged as the primary driver of the deficit narrowing, improving markedly to N$4.5 billion—a reduction of 49% year-on-year and 44.5% quarter-on-quarter. Export revenues expanded significantly, propelled principally by minerals including uranium and gold.Imports demonstrated more modest growth, increasing by 2.8% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter. The rise reflected elevated purchases of vehicles, machinery, and chemical products. Meanwhile, services outflows declined to N$3.0 billion, attributable largely to diminished spending on oil and gas exploration activities in the Orange Basin.The EAN observed that "the improvement in the current account provides some breathing space for the Namibian Dollar, reduces external vulnerability, and indicates that export performance can offset modest import growth. However, the deficit remains structurally dependent on mineral exports, leaving the economy exposed to commodity price shocks and external demand fluctuations."Export performance gains momentumNamibia's merchandise exports strengthened considerably in the second quarter of 2025, reaching N$25.6 billion—an increase of 25.4% year-on-year and 18.3% quarter-on-quarter, though this growth occurred despite declines in manufactured and food exports.Diamonds recovery with caveatsRough diamonds rebounded to N$2.9 billion, representing a 76.1% quarterly increase supported by improved volumes and prices. Nevertheless, export earnings remained 29.5% below the equivalent 2024 period owing to weak global demand and competition from laboratory-grown stones.Uranium leads commodity surgeUranium exports surged to N$7.9 billion, up N$6.1 billion year-on-year and N$3.6 billion quarter-on-quarter, reflecting higher production and deferred sales. Although international uranium prices declined year-on-year, a 9.7% quarterly recovery to US$72.59 per pound supported revenues amid steady nuclear energy demand."This performance helped narrow the current-account deficit and strengthen the balance of payments, though heavy reliance on uranium still leaves the economy exposed to external shocks."Gold prices provide liftGold reached N$6 billion, up 32.7% year-on-year, benefiting from a 41% surge in global prices to US$3,293 per ounce, driven by central bank acquisitions and investor uncertainty. The combined contribution from uranium and gold bolstered government revenues and the Namibian dollar, though it reinforced the country's structural dependence on commodities.In contrast, manufactured exports declined to N$6.3 billion primarily due to weaker polished diamond sales, whilst food and live animal exports fell 40.3% to N$527 million amid herd restocking and disease outbreaks.Export concentration presents structural riskThe EAN underscored that Namibia's export basket remains heavily concentrated in primary commodities, which continue to anchor fiscal and external stability but constrain broad-based growth. The organisation emphasised that expanding value-added processing, agro-manufacturing, and renewable-linked exports will prove essential to translate commodity windfalls into inclusive development and job creation.Import growth remains measuredNamibia's merchandise imports increased moderately in the second quarter of 2025, reaching N$30.1 billion, up 2.9% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, led by vehicles, machinery, and chemical products. Vehicle imports rose to N$3.7 billion amid stronger consumer demand and lower interest rates, whilst machinery and appliances increased to N$5.8 billion, driven by renewable energy investments.Chemical products, including sulphuric acid for mining, reached N$3.2 billion, reflecting higher industrial activity. In contrast, mineral fuel imports eased to N$5.4 billion, providing relief to households and energy-intensive sectors.The EAN observed that "the relatively modest import growth compared to exports helped narrow the trade deficit and contain inflationary pressures, providing slight relief to consumers. However, continued reliance on imported machinery and inputs underscores structural constraints that limit domestic value-addition."Trading relationship concentrationNamibia's trade remained concentrated amongst a limited number of partners. China emerged as the leading export destination, accounting for 28.7% of total shipments, predominantly uranium (91%). South Africa followed at 25.8%, dominated by gold, live animals, and fish. The Eurozone absorbed 15.6% with fish, uranium, meat, and diamonds as principal exports. Botswana (13.9%) and Zambia (4.7%) represented smaller but strategically important regional markets.On the import side, South Africa supplied 44.5% of Namibia's total, led by consumer goods, vehicles, and machinery. China accounted for 11.9%, primarily electrical equipment, whilst India and Oman remained major fuel suppliers.Macroeconomic implications and policy directionThe strength in mineral exports proved sufficient to ease inflation and provide relief to households. Nevertheless, continued reliance on primary exports left Namibia exposed to external shocks. The EAN emphasised that "Namibia's strong mineral exports and moderate import growth have supported short-term macroeconomic stability, easing inflationary pressures and providing relief for households. However, the continued concentration of exports in primary commodities and dependence on imported inputs leave the economy vulnerable to external shocks and supply disruptions."To address these structural vulnerabilities, the EAN recommended that policy prioritise deepening value addition in mining, accelerating diversification through agro-processing, downstream manufacturing, and climate-resilient agriculture, while substituting feasible imports with local production. The organisation further advised that "Namibia's strong trade ties with China, South Africa, and the Eurozone continue to underpin export growth, however, expanding partnerships will prove essential to broaden market access and reduce concentration risks."Ultimately, "a balanced approach linking export growth, import management, and domestic industrial capacity will build long-term resilience, support job creation, and enhance household welfare," the EAN concluded.

Mineral surge halves Namibia's external gap

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Republikein 2025-11-25

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Mineral surge halves Namibia's external gap

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