Licence to drill, rarely to mine

Namibia issued nearly 15,000 prospecting licences over two decades, but only a fraction of the projects they unleashed ever made it into the ground as working mines, a ratio that lays bare both the extraordinary investor appetite for the country's minerals and the formidable odds facing exploration companies.

Government records show that 14,887 prospecting licences were granted between 2005 and 2025, spanning successive booms for uranium, gold, lithium and other critical minerals that transformed Namibia into one of Africa's busiest mining jurisdictions. Of those, only 69 mining licences were approved across the same 21-year period.

The figures cover both non-exclusive and exclusive prospecting licences, and reflect the scale of international interest in Namibia's mineral potential through commodity supercycles, the collapse of uranium markets, Covid-19 disruptions and the recent global race for energy-transition resources.

A total of 10,727 non-exclusive prospecting licences were issued during the review period, while 4,160 exclusive prospecting licences were awarded.

The data reflects the extraordinary expansion of Namibia's exploration industry during the uranium boom years between 2007 and 2012, when international companies rushed to secure ground across the country following soaring uranium prices and growing global nuclear energy demand.

Non-exclusive prospecting licences rose from 316 in 2005 to 443 in 2007. Numbers climbed steadily to 656 in 2015 before surging to a record 987 in 2023, the highest level recorded across the entire review period. Activity then eased to 909 in 2024 before dropping sharply to 415 in 2025.

The 2023 peak coincided with renewed uranium price strength, expanding lithium exploration, rare-earth discoveries and increased international investor attention on Namibia.

Exclusive prospecting licences followed a different pattern, closely tied to major mining investment cycles. From only 96 in 2005, the number rose sharply to 194 in 2007 and eventually reached an all-time high of 402 in 2011 during the height of the uranium exploration frenzy.

That period coincided with major developments linked to projects such as Husab, Langer Heinrich, Trekkopje, Valencia and Etango, as Namibia consolidated its position as one of the world's leading uranium-producing jurisdictions.

The boom proved difficult to sustain. Following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 and the subsequent collapse in uranium prices, exclusive prospecting licence awards declined dramatically, falling from 395 in 2013 to just 56 in 2015.

Activity recovered modestly to 259 licences in 2018. Numbers fell again to 97 in 2021 and to only 56 in both 2022 and 2025.

Companies increasingly focused on consolidating existing projects and advancing known deposits rather than aggressively acquiring new exploration ground, the figures suggest.

Mining claims registered over the same period also reflected fluctuating investor sentiment. Claims rose from 191 in 2005 to 428 in 2011 before weakening during periods of lower commodity prices. During the Covid-19 pandemic, registrations collapsed to only 11 in 2020, one of the weakest performances across the entire period.

Activity recovered strongly in subsequent years, with claims rising to 222 in 2024 before easing slightly to 198 in 2025.

Mining licence approvals remained consistently low for most of the review period, with the government granting only one licence in 2005, none in 2006 or 2013, and just two licences in both 2010 and 2017.

The strongest year for approvals was 2021, when 11 licences were granted, followed by eight in 2022 and six in 2020. Those years coincided with renewed uranium development, gold sector expansion, lithium discoveries and rising global demand for battery and energy-transition minerals.

The overall figures highlight the high-risk nature of mining exploration. Although Namibia issued nearly 15,000 prospecting licences over 21 years, only a small fraction of projects matured into producing mines, a reminder of the long timelines, capital intensity and geological uncertainty that define mineral development.