Growth recession forecasted for the global, domestic economy

Anton Mushongo
Despite a boost in global economic activities recorded in 2022, overall growth in international economic activities for 2023 is likely to remain subdued. The recessionary global economic outlook for 2023 will be diverse across regional economies and industries. Growth is expected in specific regions and sectors; however, it will not be sufficient to offset the global recessionary pressures most countries face.

A growth recession involves slow economic growth and a rising unemployment rate without experiencing a full economic contraction. As per this definition, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) report for October 2022 forecasted the global economy to grow by 3.2% and 2.7% during 2022 and 2023 respectively, representing a slowdown from 6.0% recorded in 2021. A tight monetary stance, against the backdrop of persistent global inflationary pressures; exacerbated by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, are likely to remain in force for the remainder of the following three quarters of 2023.

Growth forecasts in advanced economies were revised downwards by 0.3 percentage points for 2023. The downgrades on growth expectations for advanced economies mainly stemmed from the slow growth projected for the United States and European economies. The United States recession predictor, the inverted yield curve, has not relented and continues to reflect expectations of a recession for the next nine months in 2023. These recessionary conditions continue to carry the risk of rising socioeconomic unrest.

However, Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is expected to grow flat, slightly increasing to 3.7% in 2023 from 3.6% in 2022. The sluggish economic growth prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa are owed predominantly to low growths in key trading partners, downside shifts in commodity terms of trade and, of course, the tightening monetary conditions.

The Bank of Namibia stated that the domestic economy is forecasted to follow the same growth recession trend, owing to tight monetary policy, persistent inflationary pressures and high costs of essential import items.

Monetary policy stance

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues into 2023, the international central bank’s war on inflation persisted, though at a moderate level, as authorities scaled back on interest rate hikes. According to Reuters, the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, raised its policy rate by a quarter percentage point in February 2023 after maintaining 75 basis points between June 2022 and November 2022.

Monetary Policy Committees of the South African Reserve Bank and the Bank of Namibia increased their policy rates in all six meetings in 2022. According to the Bank of Namibia, the decision to increase repo rates in all six meetings was mainly consistent with other central banks worldwide. It aimed to guard against the risk of global and domestic inflation, which remained high throughout 2022. The IMF projects that global inflation will stay elevated in 2023, and as a result, central banks across the globe will react by tightening other policy stances, however, at modest levels.

High costs of essential imported items

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence's global trade forecasts published in January 2023, international trade activities were forecasted to fall by 1.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023 and by 1.4% in the second quarter of 2023 before rebounding later in the year to reach an overall growth of 0.6% in 2023. The forecasted weak growth in global trade for 2023 is in line with softening global economic growth during the period under review.

According to the Bank of Namibia, Namibia’s imports of goods rose to a record high during the third quarter of 2022. Key import categories such as mineral fuels, consumer goods, machinery and electrical appliances significantly increased import payments. The increased import payments for mineral fuels were ascribed to the higher fuel cost due to ongoing higher international fuel prices linked to the continuing Russia-Ukraine war. Against the high cost of essential imported items in the domestic economy, payments to the rest of the world are expected to slow down. This is likely to reduce Namibia’s trade deficit for 2023 significantly.

The global and domestic economic outlook for 2023 is characterised by slow economic growth and high inflation rates. Though the global unemployment rate is expected to rise, it will not be sufficient to offset increases in global prices. The tightening of the monetary stance will be the most effective tool to tame inflation but at the expense of sustained economic growth.

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Republikein 2024-03-29

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European Championships Qualifying: Bristol City 1 vs 0 Leicester City English Championship: Bristol City 1 vs 0 Leicester City Katima Mulilo: 19° | 36° Rundu: 19° | 29° Eenhana: 19° | 29° Oshakati: 21° | 30° Ruacana: 20° | 33° Tsumeb: 19° | 29° Otjiwarongo: 16° | 29° Omaruru: 19° | 32° Windhoek: 17° | 29° Gobabis: 17° | 30° Henties Bay: 16° | 20° Wind speed: 22km/h, Wind direction: S, Low tide: 11:22, High tide: 05:24, Low Tide: 23:26, High tide: 17:46 Swakopmund: 16° | 17° Wind speed: 24km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 11:20, High tide: 05:22, Low Tide: 23:24, High tide: 17:44 Walvis Bay: 16° | 22° Wind speed: 27km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 11:20, High tide: 05:21, Low Tide: 23:24, High tide: 17:43 Rehoboth: 19° | 30° Mariental: 23° | 34° Keetmanshoop: 24° | 35° Aranos: 22° | 33° Lüderitz: 15° | 28° Ariamsvlei: 24° | 35° Oranjemund: 14° | 25° Luanda: 27° | 28° Gaborone: 20° | 32° Lubumbashi: 17° | 26° Mbabane: 16° | 21° Maseru: 11° | 29° Antananarivo: 16° | 27° Lilongwe: 17° | 27° Maputo: 20° | 28° Windhoek: 17° | 29° Cape Town: 17° | 28° Durban: 20° | 24° Johannesburg: 16° | 24° Dar es Salaam: 26° | 32° Lusaka: 20° | 30° Harare: 16° | 29° Currency: GBP to NAD 23.82 | EUR to NAD 20.37 | CNY to NAD 2.61 | USD to NAD 18.88 | DZD to NAD 0.14 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.33 | EGP to NAD 0.39 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.74 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.77 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.23 | USD to DZD 134.66 | USD to AOA 832.63 | USD to BWP 13.71 | USD to EGP 47.35 | USD to KES 130.98 | USD to NGN 1303.34 | USD to ZAR 18.88 | USD to ZMW 25.01 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 74536 Up +0.85% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1528.69 Up +0.84% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 12986.94 Up +0.04% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 27559.35 Down -2.36% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 233.12/OZ UP +1.93% | Copper US$ 3.99/lb UP +0.12% | Zinc US$ 2 455.50/T UP 0% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 87.65/BBP UP +1.46% | Platinum US$ 908.62/OZ UP +1.53% Sport results: European Championships Qualifying: Bristol City 1 vs 0 Leicester City English Championship: Bristol City 1 vs 0 Leicester City Weather: Katima Mulilo: 19° | 36° Rundu: 19° | 29° Eenhana: 19° | 29° Oshakati: 21° | 30° Ruacana: 20° | 33° Tsumeb: 19° | 29° Otjiwarongo: 16° | 29° Omaruru: 19° | 32° Windhoek: 17° | 29° Gobabis: 17° | 30° Henties Bay: 16° | 20° Wind speed: 22km/h, Wind direction: S, Low tide: 11:22, High tide: 05:24, Low Tide: 23:26, High tide: 17:46 Swakopmund: 16° | 17° Wind speed: 24km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 11:20, High tide: 05:22, Low Tide: 23:24, High tide: 17:44 Walvis Bay: 16° | 22° Wind speed: 27km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 11:20, High tide: 05:21, Low Tide: 23:24, High tide: 17:43 Rehoboth: 19° | 30° Mariental: 23° | 34° Keetmanshoop: 24° | 35° Aranos: 22° | 33° Lüderitz: 15° | 28° Ariamsvlei: 24° | 35° Oranjemund: 14° | 25° Luanda: 27° | 28° Gaborone: 20° | 32° Lubumbashi: 17° | 26° Mbabane: 16° | 21° Maseru: 11° | 29° Antananarivo: 16° | 27° Lilongwe: 17° | 27° Maputo: 20° | 28° Windhoek: 17° | 29° Cape Town: 17° | 28° Durban: 20° | 24° Johannesburg: 16° | 24° Dar es Salaam: 26° | 32° Lusaka: 20° | 30° Harare: 16° | 29° Economic Indicators: Currency: GBP to NAD 23.82 | EUR to NAD 20.37 | CNY to NAD 2.61 | USD to NAD 18.88 | DZD to NAD 0.14 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.33 | EGP to NAD 0.39 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.74 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.77 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.23 | USD to DZD 134.66 | USD to AOA 832.63 | USD to BWP 13.71 | USD to EGP 47.35 | USD to KES 130.98 | USD to NGN 1303.34 | USD to ZAR 18.88 | USD to ZMW 25.01 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 74536 Up +0.85% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1528.69 Up +0.84% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 12986.94 Up +0.04% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 27559.35 Down -2.36% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 233.12/OZ UP +1.93% | Copper US$ 3.99/lb UP +0.12% | Zinc US$ 2 455.50/T UP 0% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 87.65/BBP UP +1.46% | Platinum US$ 908.62/OZ UP +1.53%