FMD rewrites the rules for SA red meat

South Africa’s beef, lamb and mutton sectors are operating under significantly altered conditions as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) continues to reshape supply chains, constrain exports and push prices to levels not seen in years, according to the Absa AgriBusiness Agritrends Autumn 2026 report.

South Africa has lost its FMD-free without vaccination status after outbreaks spread beyond traditional disease-control zones and affected multiple provinces. As the virus spread, containment measures such as movement controls and quarantines became increasingly difficult to enforce, with severe consequences for exports.

According to Red Meat Industry Services (RMIS) data cited in the report, beef export volumes declined by 26.1% year-on-year in 2024. The report notes that South Africa’s previous FMD-free status without vaccination had been a strategic asset, supporting access to markets that typically impose swift import bans during outbreaks.

China’s response to recent outbreaks illustrates this dynamic, with suspensions cutting off a key export market at a time of firm global prices driven by tightening supply.

After repeated outbreaks over three years, the sector has committed to transitioning to FMD-free with vaccination status, marking a significant strategic shift.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has declared FMD a national disaster, enabling a coordinated government response and the allocation of additional resources. Progress has included record imports of high-potency vaccines, diversified procurement, the restart of local vaccine production, and regulatory reforms to streamline animal movement and slaughter.

Brazil cited as model

The report highlights Brazil as a relevant case study for South Africa’s transition. Brazil was recognised as FMD-free without vaccination in 2025 by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).

Its eradication strategy, based on mass vaccination, strict zoning, effective traceability systems and disciplined movement controls, demonstrates how vaccination can restore biosecurity, stabilise supply and support export competitiveness.

A trajectory report by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), commissioned by RMIS and referenced in Agritrends, outlines two potential price scenarios for beef.

In the first, vaccination stabilises domestic supply, but export recovery remains slow. As restrictions ease, more cattle enter the market, increasing availability and keeping prices within a higher trading range while limiting further gains. Weaner calf prices remain elevated due to restricted movement and fewer live cattle imports from neighbouring countries.

In the second scenario, improved vaccination outcomes support renewed access to higher-value export markets. Export volumes could recover and exceed the historical average of about 5% of total production, providing additional support to beef prices. In both scenarios, prices are expected to remain above pre-FMD levels.

Absa AgriBusiness forecasts average Class A beef prices at R61.62/kg in 2026 and R63.78/kg in 2027, up from R58.80/kg in 2025. Class C prices are projected at R49.75/kg in 2026 and R51.14/kg in 2027, while weaner calf prices are forecast at R35.47/kg in 2026 and R36.54/kg in 2027.

Sheep prices recover

Lamb and mutton recorded some of the strongest year-on-year price increases across the livestock sector, following a sharp decline in 2023 linked to El Niño-related pressures on producers in Oceania.

Australia recorded unusually high supply during that period, pushing global prices lower and weighing on South African markets. As flock liquidation slowed and early rebuilding began in 2024 and 2025, local prices strengthened.

This recovery has been supported by South Africa’s structurally tight flock and an export mix dominated by carcasses and half-carcasses to the Middle East, which tends to moderate price volatility.

Domestically, slaughter numbers rose by 36% in 2024 as producers responded to cashflow pressures and drought risk. Volumes declined by 4.6% in 2025, helping to sustain the price recovery into late 2025 and early 2026.

January 2026 data from RMIS shows total slaughters at 183 669 head, below the five-year average of 192 653 and 16% lower year on year.



Logistics risks remain

Looking ahead, the report expects supply from Australia and New Zealand to tighten further as producers retain more breeding ewes to rebuild flocks.

It also highlights geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including temporary shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, as a potential risk to lamb exports.

New Zealand’s recent export experience has shown how such disruptions can lead to delays and higher freight costs, with similar risks for other Southern Hemisphere exporters. The duration and severity of these disruptions remain a key uncertainty for the price outlook.

Absa AgriBusiness forecasts Class A lamb prices rising to R90.84/kg in 2026, R95.11/kg in 2027 and R98.53/kg in 2028, up from R84.50/kg in 2025. Class C prices are projected at R61.83/kg in 2026, increasing to R65.59/kg by 2028.