El Niño threatens African harvests

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) is calling for countries to act before the worst impacts of expected El Niño conditions are felt.

Moderate El Niño conditions were present in the Pacific Ocean in July, with global climate models indicating that the event could strengthen significantly in the coming months. The FAO says there is a high probability that it could become a very strong El Niño by the end of 2026, potentially making it one of the most intense events since at least 1950.

The warning comes as food insecurity is already high across much of the continent. The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises estimates that about 149 million people in sub-Saharan Africa are facing high levels of food insecurity.

El Niño does not affect all parts of Africa in the same way. Its impact depends largely on the region, season and local climate conditions.

In Western and Central Africa, the effects on rainfall and other agroclimatic conditions are difficult to predict, with no clear regional pattern. However, during the June to September rainy season, El Niño years tend to bring drier conditions to parts of the region, potentially affecting agricultural production.

The impacts are more pronounced, although contrasting, in Eastern Africa.

Continent-wide effects

In western parts of the region, including South Sudan, Sudan, western Ethiopia, Uganda’s Karamoja region and Eritrea, El Niño is associated with below-average rainfall during the main June to September rainy season. This can contribute to poor crop production.

Further east, in parts of the Horn of Africa that receive most of their rainfall between October and December, El Niño is more commonly associated with above-average rainfall. While additional rain can benefit agriculture, excessive rainfall can also result in widespread flooding, displacement, damage to crops and infrastructure, loss of life and increased food insecurity.

In Southern Africa, El Niño is associated with below-average rainfall between October and April. This is a particular concern for maize, the region's main staple crop, which is highly vulnerable to water stress.

The FAO warns that below-average rainfall could result in below-average maize production during the 2026/27 season, potentially putting pressure on regional cereal supplies. However, strong harvests recorded in parts of the region in 2026 could help cushion some of the impact.

Acting before a crisis

The FAO says the uncertainty surrounding El Niño makes early preparation particularly important.

In July, its Subregional Office for Eastern Africa, working with the FAO Regional Office for Africa's Resilience Team, presented an assessment of the potential food security impacts of El Niño during a regional El Niño-Southern Oscillation webinar convened by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre and the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development.

The session brought together national meteorological and hydrological services, government ministries, disaster management authorities and development partners to examine the latest forecasts and their potential implications for agriculture, food security, disaster risk management, health and water resources.

Rather than waiting for emergencies to develop, the FAO is advocating for anticipatory action – measures taken before a crisis to reduce its impact.

The FAO and World Food Programme have issued a joint Anticipatory Action Appeal seeking US$202 million to protect 8.8 million people across 22 countries, including 12 in Africa.

Measures supported by the FAO include early-warning systems, anticipatory cash transfers, drought-tolerant and flood-resistant seeds, livestock support, flood defences and water-storage systems.

The organisation says evidence from its response to the 2023-24 El Niño shows that acting before a crisis can provide a strong return on investment by preventing humanitarian losses that would otherwise cost several times more than early intervention. – Additional information provided by FOA and APO