Disease drives SA pork and poultry prices up

South Africa’s pork and poultry sectors are contending with overlapping biosecurity crises, volatile international supply chains and shifting consumer behaviour, pushing prices higher across both categories, according to the Absa AgriBusiness Agritrends Autumn 2026 report.

Biosecurity has moved to the centre of pork market dynamics in 2026, with both foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and African swine fever (ASF) causing significant supply disruptions, the report says. Unlike cattle, there is currently no approved FMD vaccine for pigs in South Africa.

Outbreak management, therefore, relies on quarantines, movement controls and controlled slaughter at designated abattoirs, creating widespread disruption across the value chain.

These constraints, combined with a continued shift by consumers towards more affordable protein options, have supported strong price momentum, with pork prices reaching multi-year highs in 2026. The report says producers are facing heightened strain amid the overlapping FMD and ASF outbreaks.

Pork price dynamics remain closely tied to supply, consumer demand and the relative pricing of competing proteins. Prices traded largely sideways during 2024, as higher slaughter numbers were offset by improved demand. More recently, disease-related disruptions across the broader livestock sector have created a firmer market tone as supply has come under pressure.

The report notes that cross-price signals from Class C beef and poultry continue to shape the trend, with shifts in relative pricing influencing consumption patterns. As higher beef and poultry prices push consumers towards alternatives, additional price support has flowed through to pork.

Pork prices expected to remain firm

Looking ahead, the report expects supply disruptions linked to ASF and FMD to continue supporting pork prices through the remainder of 2026. However, efforts to improve movement protocols and expand the number of designated abattoirs could limit further increases.

The potential introduction of an approved FMD vaccine for pigs is also cited as a development that could ease supply pressures. At the same time, rising consumer demand for pork, driven by its relative affordability, is expected to provide continued support.

Absa AgriBusiness forecasts baconer prices at R34.42/kg in 2026 and R35.56/kg in 2027, compared with R34.08/kg in 2025. Porker prices are projected at R32.70/kg in 2026, rising to R37.47/kg in 2027, compared with R34.80/kg in 2025.

Poultry still in recovery

South Africa’s poultry industry entered 2026 in gradual recovery but remains highly exposed to biosecurity risks, global market volatility and uneven consumer conditions, the report says.

The sector continues to feel the effects of the severe 2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak, which caused significant structural and supply disruptions. Because poultry is the country’s primary and most affordable protein source, such disruptions tend to translate quickly into price increases.

Strong and stable demand means any sudden contraction in supply results in notable price movements. The report identifies import dependence as a key structural vulnerability, with South Africa importing about 20% of its broiler meat requirements, leaving local prices sensitive to global market conditions.

Brazil outbreak hits supply

This exposure became evident in 2025 when Brazil, South Africa’s main supplier of mechanically deboned meat (MDM), reported its first HPAI outbreak. MDM is widely used in affordable processed products such as polony, viennas and sausages, making it a critical input in the food system.

The outbreak led to temporary trade suspensions and contributed to price increases in the local market. Although Brazil later contained the outbreak and exports resumed, prices remained elevated.

The report attributes this to the lagged effects of earlier supply disruptions and ongoing biosecurity risks across the livestock sector.

Feed costs ease, but risks remain

Looking ahead, the report expects moderate growth in broiler output in 2026, supported by a significantly improved feed-cost environment. Lower global and local maize and soybean prices, driven by strong harvests and ample stocks, are expected to reduce input costs.

Poultry’s relative affordability, particularly compared with higher red meat prices, is expected to continue shifting consumption towards lower-cost proteins and to sustain demand.

Local poultry prices are forecast to soften slightly but remain elevated compared with pre-HPAI levels, supported by improved supply conditions and a stronger rand. However, the report warns that HPAI outbreaks remain seasonal and globally disruptive, with any new shock likely to tighten supply and push prices higher.

Absa AgriBusiness forecasts fresh whole bird prices at R40.96/kg in 2026 and R41.62/kg in 2027, compared with R39.80/kg in 2025. Frozen whole bird prices are projected at R34.88/kg in 2026 and R35.58/kg in 2027.

All data and forecasts are drawn from the Absa AgriBusiness Agritrends Autumn 2026 report, published in April 2026.