Chart of the Week

2025 has been a chaotic year, with conflict at its centre. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza have surged on despite many platitudes from Western powers. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited tariff wars and unsettled global diplomacy with his trademark “art of the deal” style. Meanwhile, the election year of 2024 pushed many incumbents to the wayside across much of the democratic world, ushering in a new political era and shunting the Overton window further right.Despite said chaos, 2025 has been one of the more stable years for Brent prices, pointing to a detachment from turmoil in the Middle East. The US continues to pump record levels of crude oil through fracking, while OPEC+ has been upping production levels throughout the year. Brent crude is currently down 13.3% YTD and is likely to dip further if Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza is a success. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that Brent will drop to $52 per barrel in Q1 2026. Nearly all other energy commodities are in the red except for uranium, up 5.5% YTD. The hesitant resurgence in nuclear power policy worldwide, as nations seek stable, lower-carbon baseloads, is unlikely to slow, with many analysts forecasting a triple-digit price point as early as 2026.Metal prices have soared, with platinum leading the pack at 82.6% YTD. Much of this drive is down to investor anxiety, as hard assets take flight in avoidance of wars and tariffs, while protectionism plays its part in tightening supply chains. Another big beneficiary of 2025 has been gold, up 52.1% YTD, reaching an all-time high of over $4,000 in October. It has since declined slightly and may also experience further dampening if peace is achieved in Gaza.Food has seen a cooling of prices in 2025 as major exporting countries have improved harvests. US egg prices, a major political talking point during the last election, are down a staggering 81.7% YTD. If living costs continue to fall, particularly those around food and energy, the populist momentum that has swept through Western democracies may begin to falter. Voters are less likely to turn to nationalist or right-wing rhetoric when living comfortably. So, while anti-immigration sentiment remains a key flashpoint, the diminishment of economic grievances that fuel such sentiment is likely to pave the way back for liberal elites into western political climates.*Oliver DIggle is an economist at Cirrus Capital.**

Chart of the Week

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Republikein 2025-12-04

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Chart of the Week

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Republikein 2025-12-04

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