5.26m population: Namibia’s next economic test

Namibia's population is projected to reach 5.26 million by 2053, up from about 3 million in 2023, according to the Namibia Statistics Agency's (NSA) latest population projections report, which assesses future dependency ratios, labour supply capacity and demand for public services.The report was released alongside new fertility, mortality and migration reports from the 2023 Population and Housing Census.Under the NSA's medium scenario, the population reaches 5.26 million in 2053, compared with 5.02 million under the low scenario and 5.6 million under the high scenario. The 580,000-person range illustrates the uncertainty involved in planning infrastructure and services over a 30-year horizon.The fertility data shows a divergence between urban and rural areas. The national total fertility rate fell from 6.1 births per woman in 1991 to 3.9 in 2011 and was unchanged in 2023. Urban fertility declined from 4.7 to 3.2 over the period, while rural fertility rose from 4.6 in 2011 to 5 in 2023.Khomas had the lowest fertility rate in 2023 at 2.7 births per woman, followed by Erongo at 3 and Oshana at 3.2. Kavango West recorded the highest at 5.5, followed by Ohangwena and Omaheke at 5.2 each.Migration is also uneven. Khomas recorded the largest net inflow at 157 479 people, while Erongo's net inflow of 94 184 was equal to 40.8% of its birthplace population. The NSA said more than 30% of residents in both regions in 2023 were born elsewhere.Ohangwena recorded the largest net outflow at 86 895 people, equal to 25.6% of its birthplace population, followed by Omusati at 19.6% and Kavango West at 19.2%.The pattern is consistent with movement towards regions that contain major employment, commercial and administrative centres, and may have implications for housing, transport, utilities and other infrastructure.For the labour market, the trajectory will depend not only on the number of people Namibia will have but also on the age structure of that population. A growing population can expand the potential labour force and domestic consumer market, but the benefit depends on whether the economy can generate enough productive employment to absorb that growth.The mortality data also shows regional gaps. Life expectancy at birth was 64 years for men and 72.7 years for women, and was higher in urban areas than in rural areas for both sexes.Infant mortality stood at 26.2 deaths per 1 000 live births nationally, with 29.3 in rural areas compared with 23 in urban areas. Hardap recorded 42.6 deaths per 1 000 live births, while Khomas recorded 19.4.

5.26m population: Namibia’s next economic test

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Republikein 2026-10-01

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5.26m population: Namibia’s next economic test

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