Virus could ‘devastate’ rental market

The deposit-to-rent ratio in Namibia at the end of March was the lowest since 2009 during the global financial crisis.
Jo-Mare Duddy Booysen
Phillepus Uusiku - The coronavirus crisis is expected to have a devastating impact on local tenants’ ability to pay, while landlords should be concerned about a total shutdown in cash flow.

The impact of the pandemic and lockdown on the rental market in the country is yet to reflect in the data, says the market research manager at FNB Namibia, Frans Uusiku. However, he adds: “The pandemic has disrupted business activity, resulting in job losses and reduced incomes for the most part of the labour force”.

The Covid-19 lockdown hit Namibia at the end of March, just as the local residential rental market started to recover.

The market recorded a 12-month average growth of zero percent at the end of the first quarter of 2020, compared to an annual contraction of 5.2% over the same period last year.

“Whether the observed growth momentum will be sustainable is a boggling question confronting many market players,” Uusiku says.

The national average rental price at the end of March was to N$7 465.

He says it is too early to draw a conclusive view on where the rental market is headed.

“The increasing financial pressure witnessed across most economic sectors would mean that the rental market will likely hit a growth plateau in the second quarter before it reverts to a negative growth territory,” Uusiku adds.

“Given the low expectations on employment prospects coupled with subdued real wage growth, the risk for rental property owners is undoubtedly heightened than before. This will likely result in indebted property owners resorting to refinancing of mortgage bonds to consolidate debt, amongst other measures,” according to Uusiku.

Segments

The listed rental units in the first quarter of 2020 were largely concentrated in the 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom segments, accounting for 43% and 32% of the overall listings, respectively. These rental units were only recorded in Windhoek where the rural-urban migration is relatively high compared to other towns, Uusiku says.

This observation continues to affirm the existing imbalance between the demand and supply dynamics in the housing market, particularly in the medium to higher-end of the market.

The overall improvement in the rental index was driven mainly by the 2-bedroom and more-than-3 bedrooms segments, which grew by 3% and 2% year-on-year, respectively, he adds.

Deposit-to-rent ratio

Growth in deposits charged by landlords contracted by 32.1% year-on-year at the end of March 2020 compared to a growth of 11.8% year-on-year recorded during the same period last year.

This brought the deposit-to-rent ratio to a 10-year record low of 5.8%. The last time Namibia experienced such a low deposit-to-rent ratio was in 2009 during the global financial crisis, Uusiku says.

Rental yields

On an annual basis, rental yields edged up by 0.3 percentage points to 7.8% year-on-year at the end of March 2020. This is consistent with the observed improvement in the overall rental index growth and continues to paint a lucrative picture of the Namibian rental market, Uusiku says.

Rent prices are growing at a relatively fast pace compared to growth in the house prices. It must, however, be cautioned that there is a high risk of overstating the rental yields since this analysis did not consider the actual rent committed to be paid by tenants, but rather what landlords expect to receive before any negotiations, he warned.

With that considered against the backdrop of a depressed economy and tenants gaining bargaining power over landlords, the actual rent received by landlords may be expected to be marginally lower than what appear in the adverts.

The arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic serves as a stark reminder to households and businesses to shore up their emergency funds to ensure that they are better prepared to survive unexpected future events, Uusiku says.

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Republikein 2024-03-28

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Katima Mulilo: 19° | 37° Rundu: 17° | 33° Eenhana: 18° | 33° Oshakati: 20° | 31° Ruacana: 19° | 33° Tsumeb: 17° | 29° Otjiwarongo: 16° | 28° Omaruru: 18° | 31° Windhoek: 17° | 28° Gobabis: 17° | 28° Henties Bay: 16° | 19° Wind speed: 24km/h, Wind direction: S, Low tide: 10:54, High tide: 04:57, Low Tide: 22:58, High tide: 17:16 Swakopmund: 15° | 17° Wind speed: 29km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 10:52, High tide: 04:55, Low Tide: 22:56, High tide: 17:14 Walvis Bay: 16° | 22° Wind speed: 33km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 10:52, High tide: 04:54, Low Tide: 22:56, High tide: 17:13 Rehoboth: 18° | 29° Mariental: 22° | 32° Keetmanshoop: 21° | 34° Aranos: 21° | 31° Lüderitz: 15° | 29° Ariamsvlei: 23° | 34° Oranjemund: 15° | 21° Luanda: 27° | 30° Gaborone: 20° | 32° Lubumbashi: 17° | 24° Mbabane: 15° | 23° Maseru: 12° | 28° Antananarivo: 16° | 27° Lilongwe: 17° | 29° Maputo: 20° | 28° Windhoek: 17° | 28° Cape Town: 17° | 23° Durban: 21° | 25° Johannesburg: 18° | 28° Dar es Salaam: 26° | 32° Lusaka: 18° | 30° Harare: 15° | 31° Currency: GBP to NAD 23.86 | EUR to NAD 20.43 | CNY to NAD 2.62 | USD to NAD 18.93 | DZD to NAD 0.14 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.33 | EGP to NAD 0.39 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.74 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.8 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.23 | USD to DZD 134.05 | USD to AOA 832.63 | USD to BWP 13.71 | USD to EGP 47.35 | USD to KES 130.98 | USD to NGN 1415.13 | USD to ZAR 18.93 | USD to ZMW 25.01 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 74536 Up +0.85% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1528.69 Up +0.84% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 12986.94 Up +0.04% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 27559.35 Down -2.36% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 221.22/OZ UP +1.39% | Copper US$ 3.99/lb UP +0.14% | Zinc US$ 2 452.00/T DOWN -0.18% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 87.50/BBP UP +1.29% | Platinum US$ 907.52/OZ UP +1.41% Sport results: Weather: Katima Mulilo: 19° | 37° Rundu: 17° | 33° Eenhana: 18° | 33° Oshakati: 20° | 31° Ruacana: 19° | 33° Tsumeb: 17° | 29° Otjiwarongo: 16° | 28° Omaruru: 18° | 31° Windhoek: 17° | 28° Gobabis: 17° | 28° Henties Bay: 16° | 19° Wind speed: 24km/h, Wind direction: S, Low tide: 10:54, High tide: 04:57, Low Tide: 22:58, High tide: 17:16 Swakopmund: 15° | 17° Wind speed: 29km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 10:52, High tide: 04:55, Low Tide: 22:56, High tide: 17:14 Walvis Bay: 16° | 22° Wind speed: 33km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 10:52, High tide: 04:54, Low Tide: 22:56, High tide: 17:13 Rehoboth: 18° | 29° Mariental: 22° | 32° Keetmanshoop: 21° | 34° Aranos: 21° | 31° Lüderitz: 15° | 29° Ariamsvlei: 23° | 34° Oranjemund: 15° | 21° Luanda: 27° | 30° Gaborone: 20° | 32° Lubumbashi: 17° | 24° Mbabane: 15° | 23° Maseru: 12° | 28° Antananarivo: 16° | 27° Lilongwe: 17° | 29° Maputo: 20° | 28° Windhoek: 17° | 28° Cape Town: 17° | 23° Durban: 21° | 25° Johannesburg: 18° | 28° Dar es Salaam: 26° | 32° Lusaka: 18° | 30° Harare: 15° | 31° Economic Indicators: Currency: GBP to NAD 23.86 | EUR to NAD 20.43 | CNY to NAD 2.62 | USD to NAD 18.93 | DZD to NAD 0.14 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.33 | EGP to NAD 0.39 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.74 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.8 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.23 | USD to DZD 134.05 | USD to AOA 832.63 | USD to BWP 13.71 | USD to EGP 47.35 | USD to KES 130.98 | USD to NGN 1415.13 | USD to ZAR 18.93 | USD to ZMW 25.01 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 74536 Up +0.85% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1528.69 Up +0.84% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 12986.94 Up +0.04% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 27559.35 Down -2.36% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 221.22/OZ UP +1.39% | Copper US$ 3.99/lb UP +0.14% | Zinc US$ 2 452.00/T DOWN -0.18% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 87.50/BBP UP +1.29% | Platinum US$ 907.52/OZ UP +1.41%