Namibia can’t shake recession
The Namibian economy has recorded negative growth since the second quarter of 2016.
Jo-Maré Duddy – The wholesale and retail sector’s contribution to the Namibian economy in the second quarter of this year was the lowest in four years.
Figures released by the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) yesterday show the sector, at constant 2010 prices, contributed about N$3.07 billion to the economy in the past quarter - N$109 million less than the first quarter and a drop N$188 million compared to the second quarter in 2017.
Annual growth in the wholesale and retail sector in the past quarter was -5.8%. This is the seventh consecutive quarter of negative growth for the sector. In the first three months of the year, growth was -1.6%. A year ago the sector grew by -11.4%.
In the second quarter of 2016, before the country’s economic woes starting spilling over into the sector, wholesale and retail grew by 10.2%, pumping nearly N$3.7 billion into the economy.
Wholesale and retail is the heavyweight in the gross domestic product (GDP). In the second quarter of 2016, it represented nearly 14.2% of the GDP. Its contribution in the past quarter shrank to 11.9%.
GDP
The dismal performance of wholesale and retail contributed to Namibia remaining in a recession. Overall annual economic growth for the past quarter was nearly -0.22%, compared to -0.19% in the first three months of 2018. In the second quarter of 2017, growth was -0.17%.
The latest contraction means Namibia has recorded nine consecutive quarters of negative growth – since the second quarter of 2016.
At constant 2010 prices, Namibia’s GDP in the past quarter was N$25.893 billion – a drop of about N$1.6 billion compared to the first quarter of 2018 and N$56 million less than the second quarter of 2017.
Big losers
Manufacturing showed the biggest contraction of all sectors in the past quarter. The sector, which is in recession with three consecutive quarters of negative growth, grew by -12.5% in the second quarter. A year ago, it bulged by 9.8%. In the first three months of 2018, growth came in at -2.1%.
Moneywise, the sector contributed about N$2.4 billion to the GDP, around N$344 million less than a year ago and the least since the first quarter of 2015.
Fishing grew by -8.0%, a better performance than the 13.6% of the first quarter, but worse than the -4.0% of the second quarter of 2017.
Hotels and restaurants spent its fifth consecutive quarter in the red, growing by -2.6%, the same as the corresponding quarter last year. In the first three months of this year, the sector grew by -4.8%.
Health was in minus territory for the third consecutive quarter, growing -4.9%. Education officially entered a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the latest being -6.2%.
Fewer animals made available for slaughter pushed agriculture into negative growth of -1.1%. This is the first time since the fourth quarter of 2016 that the sector contracted. A year ago, it grew by 20.9%.
Gainers
Mining and quarrying was the star performer of the economy, growing by 22.4% compared to 19.6% a year ago. The sector’s share of the GDP was nearly N$2.7 billion, about N$527 million more than the second quarter of 2017.
As in the first quarter, the construction sector grew by 23.8% compared to -35.9% a year ago. It contributed N$973 million to the economy, N$188 million more than the previous second quarter. In the second quarter in 2015 – the last second quarter of positive growth until now – construction boosted the economy by nearly N$1.85 billion.
Public administration recorded growth of 1.2%, up from -2.9% in the first quarter, but lower than the 4.1% registered in the second quarter of 2017. Moneywise, nearly N$2.67 billion flowed through the economy via the civil service.
Figures released by the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) yesterday show the sector, at constant 2010 prices, contributed about N$3.07 billion to the economy in the past quarter - N$109 million less than the first quarter and a drop N$188 million compared to the second quarter in 2017.
Annual growth in the wholesale and retail sector in the past quarter was -5.8%. This is the seventh consecutive quarter of negative growth for the sector. In the first three months of the year, growth was -1.6%. A year ago the sector grew by -11.4%.
In the second quarter of 2016, before the country’s economic woes starting spilling over into the sector, wholesale and retail grew by 10.2%, pumping nearly N$3.7 billion into the economy.
Wholesale and retail is the heavyweight in the gross domestic product (GDP). In the second quarter of 2016, it represented nearly 14.2% of the GDP. Its contribution in the past quarter shrank to 11.9%.
GDP
The dismal performance of wholesale and retail contributed to Namibia remaining in a recession. Overall annual economic growth for the past quarter was nearly -0.22%, compared to -0.19% in the first three months of 2018. In the second quarter of 2017, growth was -0.17%.
The latest contraction means Namibia has recorded nine consecutive quarters of negative growth – since the second quarter of 2016.
At constant 2010 prices, Namibia’s GDP in the past quarter was N$25.893 billion – a drop of about N$1.6 billion compared to the first quarter of 2018 and N$56 million less than the second quarter of 2017.
Big losers
Manufacturing showed the biggest contraction of all sectors in the past quarter. The sector, which is in recession with three consecutive quarters of negative growth, grew by -12.5% in the second quarter. A year ago, it bulged by 9.8%. In the first three months of 2018, growth came in at -2.1%.
Moneywise, the sector contributed about N$2.4 billion to the GDP, around N$344 million less than a year ago and the least since the first quarter of 2015.
Fishing grew by -8.0%, a better performance than the 13.6% of the first quarter, but worse than the -4.0% of the second quarter of 2017.
Hotels and restaurants spent its fifth consecutive quarter in the red, growing by -2.6%, the same as the corresponding quarter last year. In the first three months of this year, the sector grew by -4.8%.
Health was in minus territory for the third consecutive quarter, growing -4.9%. Education officially entered a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the latest being -6.2%.
Fewer animals made available for slaughter pushed agriculture into negative growth of -1.1%. This is the first time since the fourth quarter of 2016 that the sector contracted. A year ago, it grew by 20.9%.
Gainers
Mining and quarrying was the star performer of the economy, growing by 22.4% compared to 19.6% a year ago. The sector’s share of the GDP was nearly N$2.7 billion, about N$527 million more than the second quarter of 2017.
As in the first quarter, the construction sector grew by 23.8% compared to -35.9% a year ago. It contributed N$973 million to the economy, N$188 million more than the previous second quarter. In the second quarter in 2015 – the last second quarter of positive growth until now – construction boosted the economy by nearly N$1.85 billion.
Public administration recorded growth of 1.2%, up from -2.9% in the first quarter, but lower than the 4.1% registered in the second quarter of 2017. Moneywise, nearly N$2.67 billion flowed through the economy via the civil service.
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