A shopkeeper puts money in her cash box at her shop in Hillcrest west of Durban, South Africa. Photo Reuters
A shopkeeper puts money in her cash box at her shop in Hillcrest west of Durban, South Africa. Photo Reuters

Rand's resilience to be tested to limits

US recession fears
History shows the rand tends to weaken sharply when the world's economic engine is in recession.
COLLEEN GOKO
The rand's 9% plunge in the past month may be just the beginning for the South African currency, whose resilience is being tested by fears of a US recession even as local fundamentals remain supportive.
History shows the rand tends to weaken sharply when the world's economic engine is in recession. Skipping the broad Covid-related slump in global markets in 2020, the US recessions of 2008/9 and 2001 knocked as much as 13% off the rand’s value. Based on Bloomberg scenario-planning tools, similar conditions this time around could see the rand weaken by about 12%.
In the first half of the year, the rand benefited from high commodity prices that lifted the current account into surplus. Improving fiscal metrics and a hawkish tilt at the central bank also helped. The market remains heavily long rand, according to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, leaving the currency at high risk of a selloff as conditions change.
"Even more concerned by recession fears could be the crowded positions in popular non-oil commodity names like South Africa," Bank of America's strategists led by David Hauner wrote in a note to clients. "They won't escape tightening financial conditions, recession fears and de-risking, even if the long-term fundamental picture is likely to remain supportive."
While money managers including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG say emerging markets are well-positioned to weather an economic slowdown, high-yielding currencies tend to buckle as capital flows head for havens like the dollar.
South Africa could be particularly hard-hit as demand for the country's raw-material exports declines, curbing a vital source of foreign exchange. Not coincidentally, the rand’s drop in recent weeks has tracked a slump in prices of industrial metals.
The rand is down 3.3% this half, reaching a 20-month low of 16.9652 per dollar on Friday. The Bank of America strategists see it extending the decline to 17.20 per dollar.
Relationship
While a global recession could weigh on oil prices, which would benefit energy importers like South Africa from a balance-of-payments point of view, that's only half the story, according to Nedbank Group Ltd.
Lower oil prices help curb inflation, but they are also a drain on dollar liquidity globally, boosting the greenback and weighing on emerging-market currencies as financial conditions tighten and funding costs rise, according to Nedbank.
"The relationship between oil and the rand takes the shape of a smile, with a 'sweet spot,' or inflection point, where the level of oil or the underlying economic conditions represented by oil are optimal for the currency," Nedbank analysts, including Reezwana Sumad said in a note to clients. "A lower oil price suggests a weaker rand exchange rate and vice versa for a higher oil price."
And while domestic positives for South Africa thus far outweighed the negatives, that is changing. Deepening power outages that will weigh on economic growth have already caught rand bulls off guard.
Reserve Bank
Not all the bulls have given up. The selloff could abate if China's economy recovers strongly and the South African Reserve Bank follows through on its promises of aggressive policy tightening, according to Societe Generale SA.
"We see the recent sell-off in ZAR as overdone, driven by accumulated negative news on the domestic and external fronts," said Marek Drimal, the London-based lead CEEMEA strategist at SocGen. The lender sees the rand at 15 per dollar by year-end. "In our view, the rand is likely to recover in the second half of 2022 on the accelerated tightening by the SARB and the expected recovery in China."
Markets are pricing in almost 200 basis points of rate increases by the end of the year, which implies at least one 75-basis-point hike at the three remaining policy meetings of the year.
But as the Hungarian forint has shown, outsize rate moves don't necessarily help the currency. The forint dropped as much as 1.6% after Hungary's central bank lifted its policy rate by the most since 2008 last week.
"Although the rand has depreciated a lot in the past two months, its weakness can extend much further, especially if the US goes into recession," the Nedbank analysts wrote. "Cyclically, we favour rand weakness well above 17.00 per dollar," they said. -Fin24

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Premier League: Manchester United 3 vs 2 Newcastle | Brighton 1 vs 2 Chelsea LaLiga: Real Sociedad 1 vs 0 Valencia | Almería 0 vs 2 Barcelona | Las Palmas 2 vs 2 Real Betis | Celta Vigo 2 vs 1 Athletic Club | Getafe 0 vs 3 Atletico Madrid | Sevilla 0 vs 1 Cadiz | Rayo Vallecano 2 vs 1 Granada SerieA: Fiorentina 2 vs 2 Napoli European Championships Qualifying: Southampton 3 vs 1 West Bromwich Albion | Leeds United 4 vs 0 Norwich City English Championship: Southampton 3 vs 1 West Bromwich Albion | Leeds United 4 vs 0 Norwich City Katima Mulilo: 10° | 31° Rundu: 10° | 30° Eenhana: 12° | 31° Oshakati: 13° | 31° Ruacana: 12° | 31° Tsumeb: 14° | 29° Otjiwarongo: 12° | 27° Omaruru: 13° | 30° Windhoek: 12° | 27° Gobabis: 13° | 27° Henties Bay: 19° | 33° Wind speed: 41km/h, Wind direction: NE, Low tide: 06:32, High tide: 12:50, Low Tide: 18:28, High tide: 00:56 Swakopmund: 20° | 23° Wind speed: 30km/h, Wind direction: SE, Low tide: 06:30, High tide: 12:48, Low Tide: 18:26, High tide: 00:54 Walvis Bay: 22° | 32° Wind speed: 30km/h, Wind direction: SE, Low tide: 06:30, High tide: 12:47, Low Tide: 18:26, High tide: 00:53 Rehoboth: 12° | 27° Mariental: 16° | 29° Keetmanshoop: 17° | 29° Aranos: 16° | 29° Lüderitz: 19° | 35° Ariamsvlei: 16° | 31° Oranjemund: 14° | 31° Luanda: 24° | 28° Gaborone: 13° | 27° Lubumbashi: 11° | 27° Mbabane: 11° | 23° Maseru: 8° | 23° Antananarivo: 14° | 24° Lilongwe: 15° | 26° Maputo: 19° | 26° Windhoek: 12° | 27° Cape Town: 15° | 20° Durban: 16° | 24° Johannesburg: 15° | 24° Dar es Salaam: 24° | 32° Lusaka: 15° | 26° Harare: 12° | 26° Currency: GBP to NAD 23.01 | EUR to NAD 19.73 | CNY to NAD 2.51 | USD to NAD 18.15 | DZD to NAD 0.13 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.3 | EGP to NAD 0.38 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.7 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.55 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.22 | USD to DZD 134.35 | USD to AOA 847.42 | USD to BWP 13.49 | USD to EGP 46.86 | USD to KES 130.48 | USD to NGN 1467 | USD to ZAR 18.15 | USD to ZMW 25.45 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 79530.63 Up +0.03% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1754.58 Up +0.81% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 13426.13 Up +0.11% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 26142.84 Up +3.27% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI 9151.06 Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 414.72/OZ UP +1.55% | Copper US$ 5.04/lb UP +4.12% | Zinc US$ 3 059.30/T UP 0.11% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 84.28/BBP UP +0.60% | Platinum US$ 1 084.88/OZ UP +2.19% Sport results: Premier League: Manchester United 3 vs 2 Newcastle | Brighton 1 vs 2 Chelsea LaLiga: Real Sociedad 1 vs 0 Valencia | Almería 0 vs 2 Barcelona | Las Palmas 2 vs 2 Real Betis | Celta Vigo 2 vs 1 Athletic Club | Getafe 0 vs 3 Atletico Madrid | Sevilla 0 vs 1 Cadiz | Rayo Vallecano 2 vs 1 Granada SerieA: Fiorentina 2 vs 2 Napoli European Championships Qualifying: Southampton 3 vs 1 West Bromwich Albion | Leeds United 4 vs 0 Norwich City English Championship: Southampton 3 vs 1 West Bromwich Albion | Leeds United 4 vs 0 Norwich City Weather: Katima Mulilo: 10° | 31° Rundu: 10° | 30° Eenhana: 12° | 31° Oshakati: 13° | 31° Ruacana: 12° | 31° Tsumeb: 14° | 29° Otjiwarongo: 12° | 27° Omaruru: 13° | 30° Windhoek: 12° | 27° Gobabis: 13° | 27° Henties Bay: 19° | 33° Wind speed: 41km/h, Wind direction: NE, Low tide: 06:32, High tide: 12:50, Low Tide: 18:28, High tide: 00:56 Swakopmund: 20° | 23° Wind speed: 30km/h, Wind direction: SE, Low tide: 06:30, High tide: 12:48, Low Tide: 18:26, High tide: 00:54 Walvis Bay: 22° | 32° Wind speed: 30km/h, Wind direction: SE, Low tide: 06:30, High tide: 12:47, Low Tide: 18:26, High tide: 00:53 Rehoboth: 12° | 27° Mariental: 16° | 29° Keetmanshoop: 17° | 29° Aranos: 16° | 29° Lüderitz: 19° | 35° Ariamsvlei: 16° | 31° Oranjemund: 14° | 31° Luanda: 24° | 28° Gaborone: 13° | 27° Lubumbashi: 11° | 27° Mbabane: 11° | 23° Maseru: 8° | 23° Antananarivo: 14° | 24° Lilongwe: 15° | 26° Maputo: 19° | 26° Windhoek: 12° | 27° Cape Town: 15° | 20° Durban: 16° | 24° Johannesburg: 15° | 24° Dar es Salaam: 24° | 32° Lusaka: 15° | 26° Harare: 12° | 26° Economic Indicators: Currency: GBP to NAD 23.01 | EUR to NAD 19.73 | CNY to NAD 2.51 | USD to NAD 18.15 | DZD to NAD 0.13 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.3 | EGP to NAD 0.38 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.7 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.55 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.22 | USD to DZD 134.35 | USD to AOA 847.42 | USD to BWP 13.49 | USD to EGP 46.86 | USD to KES 130.48 | USD to NGN 1467 | USD to ZAR 18.15 | USD to ZMW 25.45 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 79530.63 Up +0.03% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1754.58 Up +0.81% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 13426.13 Up +0.11% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 26142.84 Up +3.27% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI 9151.06 Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 414.72/OZ UP +1.55% | Copper US$ 5.04/lb UP +4.12% | Zinc US$ 3 059.30/T UP 0.11% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 84.28/BBP UP +0.60% | Platinum US$ 1 084.88/OZ UP +2.19%