Global vehicle sales to fall by 2040

15 November 2017 | Motors
Global vehicle sales will decline over the next two decades as consumers embrace on-demand ride services like Uber, but demand for oil will keep rising, according to a study released Tuesday.

Another counterintuitive finding from the study by IHS Markit was that more than 80 percent of the vehicles sold worldwide in 2040 will still use some form of petroleum-fueled combustion engine.

Annual vehicle sales in the United States, Europe, China and India will decline over the next 23 years to 54 million in 2040, as total miles travelled rises 65 percent to around 11 billion miles a year, the study projected. About 80 million vehicles a year are sold currently in those regions.

Although there will be fewer cars sold, demand for petroleum, especially for non-transportation uses, is expected to rise, from the current 98 million barrels a day to 115 million barrels a day in 2040.

According to IHS Markit, which provides economic forecasts and data to the global energy and automotive markets, battery-powered all-electric vehicles will account for about 19 percent of sales by 2040. This compares with an estimated 14 percent of production by 2030 in a forecast by Boston Consulting Group on Nov. 2.

IHS Markit forecast that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles - those with electric motors and combustion engines - will account for another 14 percent of sales in 2040.

“Consumers are starting to embrace” the advanced technologies in electric and self-driving vehicles, Tom De Vleesschauwer, IHS Markit’s transport and mobility practice leader, said in an interview.

While the adoption of electric vehicles is being driven in part by technology advances and government policy, “the part that’s most consumer-driven is ride hailing,” the on-demand service offered by such startups as Uber Technologies and China’s Didi Chuxing, according to Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit vice chairman.

He said the firm was “surprised when we saw (oil) demand increasing rather than going down”. Yergin noted that cars only account for a third of oil demand.

The study’s authors expect 43 million barrels a day of new oil production will need to be brought into development by 2040 as demand rises and existing fields decline naturally. – Nampa/Reuters

Soortgelyk

 

Intelligensiediens kan koerant nie muilband

7 ure gelede | Plaaslik

Ronelle Rademeyer - Die Sentrale Intelligensiediens van Namibië (NCIS) en die regering kan nie agter wetgewing skuil en hulle op die reg op geheimhouding beroep...

Vermeende kokaïenhandelaars in hof

7 ure gelede | Howe

Otis Finck op Walvisbaai - Die twee mans wat in verband met vermoedelik ’n reusekokaïenvonds op Walvisbaai aangekeer is, het gister in die landdroshof op...

Minister sê binnekort oor fosfaatmynbou

7 ure gelede | Omgewing

Augetto Graig - Die minister van die omgewing en toerisme, mnr. Pohamba Shifeta, sal Donderdag die aankondiging oor die toekoms van ondersese fosfaatmynbou in Namibiese...

Weer vir 19 Junie 2018

7 ure gelede | Weer

BINNELAND: Gedeeltelik bewolk en matig tot warm in die Suide, met enkele buie in die verre Suide. Elders sal dit sonnig en warm tot...

Regstelling

7 ure gelede |

In die artikel "Chinese oorheers sentrums vir vars produkte" wat op 4 Junie 2018 in Republikein verskyn het, is verkeerdelik berig dat die Namibiese maatskappy,...

Skole: Tydelike reëling vir winter

7 ure gelede | Ministeries

Henriette Lamprecht - Van eerskomende Maandag af moet skole nie vroeër as 07:30 en nie later as 08:30 in die winter begin nie. By dubbelskofskole...

Glaspaneel eis glo lewe

7 ure gelede | Misdaad

Francoise Steynberg - 'n Man is Saterdag in die hoofstad dood nadat 'n glaspaneel glo op hom geval het. Volgens die Namibiese polisie se misdaadverslag...

Queen se kuiertjie gee Omaruru 'n stootjie

7 ure gelede | Gebeure

Des ErasmusAan jou vrinne sal jy geken word. Eensklaps verkeer Omaruru in goeie geselskap danksy The Music of Queen soos vertolk deur Joseph Clark. Op...

Breek die kettings van geestesongesteldhede

7 ure gelede | Gesondheid

Henriette LamprechtDaar kleef steeds 'n stigma aan geestessiektes. Dit word dikwels nie behoorlik gediagnoseer nie en selfs in relatief ontwikkelde lande kry mense met geestessiektes...