IPPR sets the record straight on election poll

Graham Hopwood, Executive Director, writes:

In late September the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) published an informal poll of the Institute’s researchers on the possible outcome of the 2009 National Assembly elections.

The overall result of the poll was as follows: Swapo 54 seats (75%), RDP 6 seats (8%), DTA 4 seats (6%), Nudo 3 seats (4%), CoD 2 seats (3%), UDF 2 seats (3%), APP 1 seat (1%). At the time of publication, the IPPR stressed that this was a nonscientific prediction based solely on the views of a number of researchers who have worked at the Institute on issues relating to politics, democracy and governance in Namibia.

The poll has attracted some criticism from one political party (the Rally for Democracy and Progress), as well as the National Society for Human Rights (NSHR). In the absence of regular, formal and scientific opinion polling on party support levels in Namibia, as conducted in other democracies, the IPPR regards this to have been a useful exercise and contribution towards public debate around the upcoming Presidential and National Assembly elections.

As far as we are aware, the IPPR is the only organisation that publishes an opinion poll on general levels of party support in Namibia through the Afrobarometer project, which covers 18 sub-Saharan countries.

The last Afrobarometer survey on political party support, from November 2008, can be accessed in the paper ‘Namibia Political Party Prospects Leading to the 2009 Elections’ available at http://www.ippr.org.na The Afrobarometer results were as follows: Swapo 51%, RDP 9%, DTA 4%, Nudo 3%, CoD 3%, UDF 2%, APP 2%, RP 1%, Swanu 1%, would not vote 7%, refused to answer 10%, don’t know 7%.

Question: If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?

Survey sample: 1200. Margin of error: +/- 3%. As a matter of course, the Namibian media ask political commentators and analysts for their predictions of election results ahead of voting and, as such, the IPPR’s attempt to gauge the views of its own researchers should be regarded as nothing out of the ordinary and certainly not sinister.

Inevitably, political parties will tend to disagree with both opinion polls and commentators’ predictions, since, understandably, their own expectations will almost always be more optimistic.

The fact that in such forecasts one party is placed ahead of another in no way indicates that the IPPR favours that political party over other parties. In fact, the IPPR is party-politically neutral, as it was established as a not-for-profit organisation with a mission to deliver independent analysis and public policyrelated research on economic, social and political issues of national importance.

The Institute has always been independent of government, political parties, business, trade unions and other interest groups, in terms of its research focus, outputs and dissemination activities.

In this regard, the IPPR has built a strong and credible track record over the course of the last nine years. The IPPR certainly welcomes responses to its research findings and criticism of its publications in the public domain.

However, we are concerned that some of the language used in criticism of the IPPR in this particular case verges on the intemperate. In general, a tone of civility and mutual respect should prevail in all electionrelated discourse.

For more analysis of the 2009 National Assembly and Presidential Elections, please see the IPPR’s dedicated website to election matters: http://www.electionwatch.org.na